NZD/USD struggles to extend gains as USD demand persists

Kiwi capped as the US Dollar holds firm on safe-haven flows tied to ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Softer US yields are capping gains in NZD/USD, while weakening risk appetite continues to restrict further upside.
Oil-driven inflation fears support the greenback, while markets scale back bets on Fed easing.

Agustin Wazne FXStreet

The NZD/USD pair is trading with a cautious tone around the 0.5910 region on Thursday, as the US Dollar (USD) maintains a firm footing despite a modest pullback in US Treasury yields.

The Greenback continues to benefit from safe-haven demand, with markets remaining on edge following fresh developments in the Middle East. Although a ceasefire extension between the United States and Iran initially provided some relief, renewed disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and rising Oil prices have kept risk sentiment fragile, limiting demand for higher-beta currencies like the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

At the same time, US yields drifting lower have prevented a more aggressive upside in the USD, allowing NZD/USD to stabilize after recent losses. However, this support has proven shallow, as investors continue to reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Expectations for rate cuts remain limited, with markets still pricing a relatively cautious easing cycle.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the four-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5907, holding a constructive near-term bias as it sits above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 0.5897 and the 100-period SMA near 0.5825. The clustering of short- and medium-term SMAs below spot suggests underlying demand, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 54 signals modest bullish momentum without venturing into overbought territory.

On the downside, initial support emerges at 0.5902, ahead of 0.5897, a level reinforced by the nearby 20-period SMA, with the 100-period SMA down at 0.5825 marking a more distant floor. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at 0.5921, followed by 0.5924; a break above these hurdles would open the way toward 0.5965.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Agustin Wazne

FXStreet

Agustin Wazne joined FXStreet as a Junior News Editor, focusing on Commodities and covering Majors.

GBP/USD: Downward-sloping trendline near 1.3470 remains key barrier

The British pound faces selling pressure against its major currency peers, trading 0.1% lower at around 1.3420 against the US Dollar during the European trading session on Tuesday.

Euro clings to the bid bias above 1.1500

EUR/USD has picked up pace, reversing Monday’s decline and advancing past the 1.1500 barrier on Tuesday. In the meantime, hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Middle East crisis keep the US Dollar under modest downside pressure, helping spot in its recovery.

Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index extends historical negative streak as risk appetite deteriorates

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index extends its negative streak to 78 consecutive days on Tuesday, the longest on record. This reading comes amid the ongoing bearish trend, which has seen Bitcoin (BTC) drop by almost 50% from its record high to trade around $64,000.

Why the WTI sell-off may be hiding a supply warning

Prices for the barrel of the American Oil benchmark have fallen sharply as hopes of a US-Iran agreement have resurfaced, but a deeply backwardated Oil curve, tight Cushing stocks and light speculative positioning all warn that the sell-off may have gone too far.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.