|

NZD/USD approaches 0.6000 amid speculation about a US-Iran peace deal

  • NZD/USD rallies about 1.5% on the day and approaches pre-war levels at 0.6000.
  • An Axios report suggested that the US and Iran would be close to a peace deal.
  • New Zealand's unemployment rate declined unexpectedly in Q1, providing additional support to the NZD.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) appreciates more than 1.5% against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, as rumours that Washington and Iran are close to a peace deal have boosted risk appetite. The pair has broken above the top of the last three weeks’ trading range, to hit session highs a few pips shy of pre-war levels at the 0.6000 area

The US news website Axios, citing two US officials and other sources related to the process, reports that US and Iranian representatives are getting closer to a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the conflict and set the framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations at a later time.

Previously, US President Donald Trump had boosted market sentiment, announcing a pause in the plan to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. These comments follow a press conference by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who affirmed on Tuesday that the objectives of the "Operation Epic Fury" in the Iran war had been achieved, suggesting that the US is not willing to resume hostilities.

In New Zealand, data released earlier on Wednesday revealed that the Unemployment Rate eased against expectations to 5.3% in Q1, from 5.4% in the previous quarter, despite lower-than-expected employment growth. Labour costs have also risen, adding pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to hike interest rates. The NZD appreciated after the data release.

The focus now is on the US ADP Employment Change Report, due later on the day. ADP data is expected to show that private payrolls increased to 99K in April, from 62K in March, setting a positive precedent for Friday’s all-important Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Economic Indicator

ADP Employment Change

The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

Next release: Wed May 06, 2026 12:15

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: 99K

Previous: 62K

Source: ADP Research Institute

Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Author

Guillermo Alcala

Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.

More from Guillermo Alcala
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD bounces off lows, back above 1.3200

After bottoming out near 1.3160, GBP/USD manages to regain a bit of shine and reclaim the 1.3200 mark and beyond at the end of the week. Stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales data seem to be helping the British Pound limit its losses, while the chaotic UK political environment keeps the bulls at bay for now.

EUR/USD looks consolidative around 1.1460

EUR/USD stages a modest rebound after slipping to a three-month low below 1.1420 at the end of the week. That said, the pair now looks to consolidate humble gains just above 1.1460 despite growing uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations, which keeps the US Dollar’s downside contained.

Gold slips back to six-day lows, targets $4,100

Gold retreats for the third consecutive day on Friday, eroding gains seen in the first half of the week and approaching the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce. Indeed, the precious metal continues to face headwinds from the Fed's hawkish stance and renewed uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations.

Breaking: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire deal violation
Iran says it is closing the Strait of Hormuz after accusing the United States (US) and Israel of violating the ceasefire. According to Iran, the decision came over the continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a warning to all vessels: "Do not approach the Strait of Hormuz; otherwise, your security will be jeopardized."
The Iran war didn't break the US economy, but what happens next?

Nearly four months after the start of the Iran war, the US economy remains remarkably resilient. While the conflict initially triggered a severe disruption to global energy markets and a sharp rise in Oil prices, recent diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran has eased concerns about a prolonged supply shock.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.