New Zealand Dollar extends rally as fading Fed-hike bets soften US Dollar

NZD/USD is up for the week and trading near a three-month high.
Soft US data has trimmed bets on a Federal Reserve hike, pulling the US Dollar and Treasury yields lower.
Sunday's New Zealand Retail Sales report is the next test.

Agustin Wazne FXStreet

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extends its rally against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, trading near 0.6000 and close to its highest level since end-May.

Flash S&P Global PMIs released on Friday showed private-sector activity accelerating, led by a strong Services reading that beat expectations, though Manufacturing slipped and missed forecasts. Yet the upbeat data failed to lift the US Dollar, suggesting the Kiwi’s advance is being driven by its own momentum rather than a Federal Reserve (Fed) rethink.

China left its benchmark lending rates unchanged, offering some reassurance for currencies exposed to Chinese demand, including the Kiwi. Metals are strongly bid, with Gold and Silver both sharply higher on the day, and the Australian Dollar is set for its longest weekly winning streak since 2020. That risk-on tone tends to lift higher-beta currencies like the New Zealand Dollar, and the Kiwi is riding it.

The 0.6000 area is the immediate barrier, with the 2026 high a little above it. A failure to hold the 0.5900 region would take the wind out of the current push. After a run this steep, the pair needs a fresh reason to clear the round number rather than stall beneath it.

Short-term technical analysis:

In the daily chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5979, retaining a bullish near-term bias as price holds above both the 20-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at 0.5876 and 0.5837, respectively. The pair is pressing against nearby overhead supply, with initial resistance emerging at the horizontal barrier around 0.5989, while the Relative Strength Index (14) hovers near 69, suggesting momentum is strong but verging on overbought conditions.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the clustered horizontal levels around 0.5939, 0.5930 and 0.5907, which protect the recent advance before deeper demand appears at the 20-day SMA near 0.5876 and the 100-day SMA at 0.5837. On the topside, a clear break above 0.5989 would open the door for further gains, although more distant resistance is only indicated far higher at 5,954, leaving the focus on how price reacts to the current cap just shy of the 0.6000 handle.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Author

Agustin Wazne

FXStreet

Agustin Wazne joined FXStreet as a Junior News Editor, focusing on Commodities and covering Majors.

AUD/USD defies gravity; focus is back to 0.7000

AUD/USD has maintained its bid bias around 0.6970 ahead of the opening bell in Asia on Tuesday. The pair has added to Friday’s rebound, retargeting the 0.7000 hurdle despite another day of firm gains in the Greenback. Looking ahead, Westpac will publish its Consumer Confidence gauge on the domestic calendar.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 amid hawkish BoJ bets, firmer USD

USD/JPY erases losses and retakes 158.00 in the Asian session on Monday, trading within a one-week-old range. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin the US Dollar, despite fading Fed rate hike hopes, supporting the pair's rebound. However, further upside could be capped by hawkish BoJ expectations and looming intervention risks that could support the Japanese Yen.

Gold treads water around $4,150

Gold now regains some composure and approaches the $4,150 mark per troy ounce late on Monday. The precious metal’s vacillating price action comes in response to the persistent advance in the US Dollar in combination with the resurgence of the upside momentum in US Treasury yields across the curve.

Bitcoin and Gold Outlook: BTC slips, XAU downtrend persists as US Services PMI misses forecasts

Bitcoin (BTC) faces growing headwinds on Monday, as it trades lower below $86,000. Despite the ongoing pullback, the Crypto King remains in a broad range with the lower limit near $84,000 and the upper limit at $88,000. A break on either side of this zone would influence BTC's direction. Gold (XAU/USD), meanwhile, retains a dominant bearish outlook as price action continues downward toward $4,100.

Eurozone inflation just hit 3.8%, its highest in three years. This chart shows why the ECB can’t simply hike its way out

The ECB would normally have a relatively straightforward answer to inflation running almost twice its target: raise interest rates. But these are not normal circumstances. This time, the bond market is already doing part of the tightening for it, leaving the ECB facing an increasingly difficult dilemma.