Lagarde speech: Economy may be more-quick to adjust if inflation rises

Sagar Dua FXStreet

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde signaled at the ECB and its Watchers conference at Goethe University in Frankfurt during European trading hours on Wednesday that the central bank is ready for monetary policy adjustments if inflation proves stronger.

Remarks

The case for action becomes stronger when deviations from our inflation target grow larger and more persistent.

If the shock gives rise to a large though not-too-persistent overshoot of our target, some measured adjustment of policy could be warranted.

Must pay close attention to early warning signs that the shock is embedding in broader inflation dynamics.

Broad pass-through from energy prices is the exception rather than the rule.

We must identify when higher energy costs risk spilling over into broad-based inflation.

There are factors today which point to a lesser pass through than in 2021/22.

Given recent experience with high inflation, economy may be more-quick to adjust.

Market reaction

There seems to be a slight negative impact of ECB Lagarde's comments on the Euro (ECB). As of writing, EUR/USD trades broadly flat around 1.1600.

ECB FAQs

What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro?

In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.

What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

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