Kazakhstan still producing far too much oil in June – Commerzbank

Kazakhstan's overproduction is probably the main reason for the OPEC+ change in production strategy and the rapid reversal of voluntary production cuts, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

Oil prices are likely to fall further

"The situation remains unchanged ahead of the production decision due in early July: Reuters quotes the Kazakh Energy Ministry as saying that oil and condensate production in June would rise by around 6% from the previous month to 2.14 million barrels per day. This would mean that Kazakhstan would produce significantly above the agreed level for another month, even though condensates are excluded from the production restrictions."

"If, as a result, daily OPEC+ production is increased by a good 400,000 barrels for the fourth month in a row from August, there is a risk of a massive oversupply on the market by autumn at the latest. As soon as the stronger demand in the summer months subsides and if geopolitical risks do not increase again, oil prices are likely to fall further."