Japanese Yen softens on Middle East uncertainty; official warns of FX intervention

USD/JPY gains ground to near 159.35 in Friday’s Asian session.
Trump said the next meeting between the US and Iran might take place over the weekend.
Japan’s Katayama hinted at the JPY intervention after talks with the US counterpart.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The USD/JPY pair gathers strength around 159.35 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The pair extends the rally for the third consecutive day amid uncertainty in the Middle East. However, heightening intervention warnings from Japanese officials might cap the upside for USD/JPY.

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. The uncertainty in the Middle East remains high as the Lebanese army stated on Friday that it recorded multiple ceasefire violations by Israel after the truce went into effect at midnight local time on Friday. Rising tensions in the Middle East could boost the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY).

Traders will closely monitor a second round of negotiations between the US and Iran that could take place this weekend. Earlier on Thursday, Trump expressed optimism about the possibility that the US and Iran could clinch a permanent ceasefire ahead of its expiration next week.

Intervention fears from Japanese authorities could underpin the JPY and create a tailwind for the pair. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that she’s held close discussions on foreign exchange issues with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and that authorities are prepared for “bold” action if needed.

Earlier Friday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said that a decision on how soon to raise interest rates must take into account the fact that the nation's real interest rate is low. He added that Japan is facing rising inflation from a "negative supply shock," which is more difficult to rein in with monetary policy than inflation driven by strong demand.

Japanese Yen FAQs

What key factors drive the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen?

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen?

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

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