Japanese Yen retreats from highs, trends toward 161.00

USD/JPY trades down to161.10 as traders stay cautious near the four-decade high around 162.00.
Intervention risks remain elevated with Japanese authorities closely monitoring currency moves.
US PCE is the next key catalyst as a stronger inflation print could support the Fed’s restrictive stance, while softer data may trigger profit-taking.

Agustin Wazne FXStreet

The USD/JPY pair sank as low as 161.07 on Monday, retreating from highs near 161.90 as traders remain alert to possible Japanese intervention after the pair moved close to a four-decade high.

Japanese officials have repeatedly warned that they are closely monitoring currency markets, and the latest move comes after USD/JPY posted its highest weekly close in about 40 years.

For now, USD/JPY remains supported by the Greenback’s yield advantage, but the closer the pair gets to 162.00, the greater the risk of verbal or direct intervention from Tokyo. That could leave the pair vulnerable to sharp pullbacks even if the broader trend remains tilted to the upside.

Attention also turns to the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A stronger-than-expected PCE reading on Thursday could reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep policy restrictive for longer, while a softer print may give traders a reason to take profit after the pair’s strong rally.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 161.35, maintaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 161.12 and the 100-period SMA at 160.27. The pair also stays above horizontal support at 161.16, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) eases back toward the mid-60s area around 59, suggesting bullish momentum is moderating rather than reversing after recent overbought readings.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at 161.58, followed by 161.77, and then the recent horizontal cap near 161.92. On the downside, a break below the nearby 161.16 support would expose the 20-period SMA at 161.12, with the deeper 100-period SMA underpinning the broader uptrend around 160.27.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Agustin Wazne

FXStreet

Agustin Wazne joined FXStreet as a Junior News Editor, focusing on Commodities and covering Majors.

GBP/USD hovers around daily lows near 1.3450

GBP/USD trades with decent losses on Thursday, revisiting the 1.3450 zone. Cable’s resumption of the selling interest comes after two daily advances in a row and follows the improved sentiment around the Greenback amid fresh concerns in the Middle East.

EUR/USD slips back to two-day lows near 1.1510

EUR/USD faces some renewed downside pressure and retests the low 1.1500s in the latter part of Thursday’s NA session. The move lower in spot comes after two daily advances in a row and follows the fresh bid bias in the US Dollar amid the re-emergence of some effervescence in the Middle East. Moving forward, US NFP data will take centre stage on Friday.

How Wall Street rigs the game [Video]

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by Peter Antico and Sean Stone to discuss the Paradigm of Money - an in-depth expose of financial market corruption, from naked shorting to the two-tier system that protects Wall Street.

Ethereum Price Forecast: Whales absorb retail distribution as bear market nears late stage

Ethereum (ETH) large holders have been accumulating the supply of retail investors in 2026. In a report released late Wednesday, CryptoQuant analysts highlighted that the supply of the 1K-10K ETH cohort has fallen from 15.6 million ETH in January to roughly 12.9 million ETH.

Markets question Fed's inflation resolve after July FOMC meeting

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh continues to project a tough stance on inflation, repeatedly promising to restore price stability and keep inflation anchored at the central bank's longstanding 2% target. But according to Mike Maharrey in this week's Money Metals Midweek Memo, markets are beginning to judge the Fed by its actions rather than its rhetoric—and so far, they aren't convinced.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.