Japan: GDP revision seen on stronger wages – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

ING economists Lynn Song and Min Joo Kang anticipate an upward revision to Japan’s 2025 Q4 GDP, supported by stronger winter bonuses and improving real cash earnings as inflation cools. They expect growth to be revised from 0.1% to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, while producer price inflation is projected to remain stable at 2.2%.

Wage gains to lift GDP

"Japan will announce its 2025 fourth-quarter GDP data next week, while China is set to release inflation and trade data."

"Labour cash earnings are expected to rise thanks to strong winter bonuses. More importantly, real cash earnings are expected to turn positive thanks to the recent cooling of inflation."

"Given the stronger-than-expected capital spending data from last week, we expect 2025's fourth-quarter GDP to be revised up from the initial 0.1% quarter-on-quarter sa to 0.3%. Meanwhile, producer price inflation is expected to stay relatively stable at 2.2%."

"Meanwhile, producer price inflation is expected to stay relatively stable at 2.2%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

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