Hungarian Forint: Rally against Euro seen extending – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky says Central and Eastern European (CEE) FX is benefiting from positive global sentiment, with EUR/HUF breaking to new lows below 355. Markets expect Hungary’s new Prime Minister Peter Magyar to unlock EU funds and advance Euro adoption. Despite stretched long positioning, Taborsky sees the pair reaching the 350 mid-year forecast earlier, though he warns optimism could fade without concrete fiscal and EU-funds plans.

CEE FX buoyed by Hungary optimism

"Along with all emerging markets, CEE FX is enjoying the positive sentiment coming from the global story."

"EUR/HUF broke another record low last week, closing below 355 on Friday."

"Despite the already heavy long positioning, it seems that the market has no problem moving forward and our mid-year forecast at 350 will probably be reached earlier than we expected."

"On the other hand, the appointment of the PM itself may herald the end of positive headlines and the market may buy the rumour and sell the fact."

"Therefore, we believe that the market can ride the wave of optimism for a while longer before it starts to address the details here."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD flirts with 0.7000, lowest since early August amid bullish USD

AUD/USD hits a fresh low since early August during the Asian session on Friday and looks vulnerable near 0.7000 after breaking below the 200-day SMA overnight. Against the backdrop of the hawkish Fed, a two-day rally in oil prices revives inflation fears and continues to push US bond yields to multi-year highs. Adding to this, geopolitical risks lift the US Dollar to a two-month high, overshadowing RBA rate hike bets and weighing on the pair.

USD/JPY pulls back from three-week high after failing near 159.00

USD/JPY edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, stalling its recent strong move to a three-week high of 159.00 as Japanese Yen bears turn cautious amid intervention fears. Meanwhile, the US Dollar retains a strong bullish undertone as the Fed's hawkish outlook and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to multi-year peaks. Furthermore, the BoJ's dovish rate hike last week might cap JPY and support spot prices.

Gold treads water below $4,300

Gold grabs some buying attention and advances marginally at the end of the week, partially retracing the weekly decline, although it is still navigating below the key $4,300 mark per troy ounce. The fresh selling bias on the Greenback and the modest decline in US Treasury yields appear to support the humble advance in the precious metal.

Week ahead: Rate hike bets face a crucial data week

Despite the solid drop from the mid-September high, oil prices remained in the driver’s seat for another week, setting the tone in financial markets. Six months have passed since the late-February start of the US-Iran conflict, and there is still no breakthrough in the stalled talks, despite pressure from regional leaders and the rest of the world.

CFTC Report: Defensive currency positioning takes hold

The week in one sentence: Sterling and Euro shorts deepened in the week to September 22, while Yen longs were cut sharply. Oil positioning improved despite a steep price decline, and Gold exposure remained crowded. The main signal was a more defensive currency positioning backdrop.

Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.