Gold: Recovery needs softer Oil and peak Fed repricing – OCBC

Christopher Wong at OCBC notes Gold has rebounded about 5% as US‑Iran de‑escalation eased Oil-led inflation and rates shocks. He cautions that upside momentum may slow into the FOMC, with further gains dependent on softer Oil, lower yields and evidence Fed hawkish repricing has peaked. Key resistance lies around 4,394–4,580, with support at 4,200 and 4,024.

Upside hinges on macro easing signals

"Gold. Potential turn? Gold rebounded as US-Iran de-escalation narrative helped to unwind part of the oil led inflation and rates shock."

"The 5% rebound since Wed may potentially turn less even from here, with FOMC coming up while markets may shift focus from headline to details on US-Iran agreement."

"For gold to regain stronger upside momentum, a more durable improvement in the external environment is needed and this would include softer oil prices, yields to ease further and clearer evidence that Fed hawkish repricing has peaked."

"The latter will be a clear boost for gold prices – watch FOMC on Thu for clues."

"A sustained recovery above resistance at 4394 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low), 4450 (200 DMA), 4580 (50 DMA) is needed to ease downside pressure. Otherwise, rallies may remain corrective. Support at 4200, 4024 (recent low)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)