Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to have little reason to move significantly higher anytime soon – TDS

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Gold fell last week as investors bet on further rate hikes by the Fed. Economists at TD Securities analyze XAU/USD outlook.

High probability of another 25 bps in late-July

Investors are worried that a lack of economic weakness in the US and core inflation trending more than double the US central bank's inflation target will force policymakers to deliver on additional rate hikes in the coming months. Indeed, the futures market is pricing a high probability of another 25 bps in late July.

While there are fewer price pressures in the economy, recent data suggest that rates will move higher on the front end of the curve and stay at elevated levels for some time, which implies that Gold will continue to have little reason to move significantly higher anytime soon.

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD slumps below 1.1800 on hawkish Fed Minutes, eyes on ECB succession

The EUR/USD pair tumbles to a near two-week low around 1.1785 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar strengthens against the Euro on hawkish FOMC minutes that revived speculation about potential interest rate hikes if inflation remains elevated.

GBP/USD struggles near four-week low vs. USD, below 1.3500 amid BoE rate cut bets

The GBP/USD pair is seen consolidating its weekly losses registered over the past three days and oscillating in a narrow range near a four-week trough, touched during the Asians session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade just below the 1.3500 psychological mark and seem vulnerable to slide further.

Gold yearns for acceptance above the $5,000 mark

Gold preserves 2% advance seen on Wednesday as buyers gather pace early Thursday. The US Dollar holds January Fed Minutes-led gains ahead of more US macro data. Gold needs a sustained break above the key $5,000 barrier; daily RSI stays bullish.

Bitcoin approaches a critical zone: Bear pennant projects $56,000

Based on the most recent analyses from February 2026, the short answer is that it is highly unlikely that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 this month.

Mixed UK inflation data no gamechanger for the Bank of England

Food inflation plunged in January, but service sector price pressure is proving stickier. We continue to expect Bank of England rate cuts in March and June. The latest UK inflation read is a mixed bag for the Bank of England, but we doubt it drastically changes the odds of a March rate cut.

Sui extends sideways action ahead of Grayscale’s GSUI ETF launch

Sui is extending its downtrend for the second consecutive day, trading at 0.95 at the time of writing on Wednesday. The Layer-1 token is down over 16% in February and approximately 34% from the start of the year, aligning with the overall bearish sentiment across the crypto market.