Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rebounds above $4,800, traders brace for US-Iran talks
- Gold price rebounds to around $4,820 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- The CME Group over the weekend again raised margin requirements for the two metals futures contracts.
- US officials said Iran is ready to meet and negotiate a deal.
Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some lost ground to near $4,820 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal edges higher following a historic market rout. However, the upside in the near term might be limited, as US President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve (Fed) chair.
The nomination of Warsh to lead the US central bank has raised expectations of a more hawkish stance. Markets anticipate that Warsh may lean toward a smaller Fed balance sheet and hold the interest rate higher for longer, which typically strengthens the US Dollar (USD) and reduces the appeal of non-yielding gold.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME), the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, raised margin requirements for gold and silver over the weekend. This action forced many leveraged traders to sell their positions immediately to cover costs, exerting some selling pressure on the yellow metal.
The US and Iran may hold diplomatic talks in Istanbul later on Friday as Trump weighs a possible military strike on the Islamic Republic. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding negotiations. Any signs of escalating tensions between the US and Iran could boost traditional safe-haven assets such as Gold in the near term.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
