Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts lower below $2,900 amid profit-taking
- Gold price trades in negative territory around $2,880 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Trump tariff delay eases panic in markets, weighing on the Gold price.
- The uncertainty, rising trade tensions and weaker USD could lift the XAU/USD price.
Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to near $2,880 due to profit-taking during the early Asian session on Monday. However, fears of a global trade war in the wake of US President Donald Trump's push for reciprocal tariffs might help limit the precious metal’s losses.
The delay in the Trump administration's tariff proposals being implemented and profit-taking by traders cap the upside for the yellow metal. Trump on Thursday signed a presidential memorandum laying out his plan to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on foreign nations. However, he delayed their implementation as his administration launched negotiations on a one-by-one basis with nations that could be impacted. The easing fear of a global trade war weighs on the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset.
Investors will closely monitor the developments surrounding further Trump’s tariff policies. Any signs of escalating trade tension and uncertainty could boost safe-haven flows, benefiting the precious metal.
The downbeat US economic data drag the US Dollar (USD) lower, which could provide some support to the USD-denominated commodities price. Retail Sales in the United States fell by 0.9% in January from the 0.7% increase (revised from 0.4%) in December, the US Census Bureau showed Friday. This figure came in below the market consensus of -0.1%.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
