Gold: Forecasts cut but constructive case intact – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong have lowered their end‑2026 forecasts for Gold and Silver, citing a tougher near‑term macro backdrop with higher real yields, a stronger US Dollar (USD) and slower ETF demand. However, they keep a mildly upward trajectory, arguing the medium‑term diversification role of Gold and structural deficit story in Silver remain intact, with stronger conviction contingent on a friendlier macro environment.

Lower targets yet medium-term view supported

"Gold and silver forecast levels have been lowered, but not the direction. The revision reflects a tougher near-term macro setup."

"Gold and silver forecasts have been revised lower to $4360 and $67, respectively for end-2026 (PreciousMetals Focus – Gold and Silver: Forecasts revised lower, 30 Jun 2026). The change reflects a more challenging near-term macro backdrop, rather than a full reassessment of the medium-term structural case for precious metals."

"In particular, the near-term setup has deteriorated for both metals. Real yields have repriced higher, the USD has strengthened, Fed expectations have shifted in a more hawkish direction while ETF demand has slowed."

"Turnaround in gold and silver prices require the macro environment to improve and this includes easing in real yields, a softer USD or a clearer unwind in hawkish Fed expectations."

"Without that, rallies are likely to be faded and gold, silver may spend more time consolidating below previous highs."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)