|

GBP/USD rebounds toward 1.3530 as US Dollar eases after recent surge

  • Cable recovered after an early gap lower on fresh Middle East tensions.
  • Rising Oil prices and Hormuz disruption kept inflation fears elevated globally.
  • UK sentiment weakened as traders awaited jobs data and Fed headlines.

GBP/USD recovers some ground after opening the week on a lower note, despite escalating tensions in the Middle East as the US seized an Iran-flagged vessel. At the same time, Tehran threatened to halt talks in Pakistan. The pair trades at 1.3525, up 0.13%.

Sterling recovers as traders weigh war risks and UK gloom

The US-Iran conflict is grabbing the attention as tensions boiled over the weekend, as Iran demanded that Washington end the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, Cable gapped down, opening the week at around 1.3480, but it has recovered some ground as the Greenback edges lower, some 0.05% according to the US Dollar Index (DXY).

The DXY, which measures the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is at 98.17 after hitting a six-day high of 98.39 at Monday’s Asian opening on geopolitical news.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is surging sharply, up nearly 3.90% at $87.37 per barrel, adding to worldwide inflationary pressures on supply concerns and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz.

The US economic docket is absent. Yet, traders are looking ahead to April 21’s hearing before the US Senate on Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, to become the next Federal Reserve Chair, succeeding Jerome Powell.

In the UK, British consumer morale hit its lowest level since mid-2023, according to two surveys. S&P Global announced that consumer sentiment fell to 42.3 from 44.1, a 33-month low, while Deloitte said its quarterly gauge of confidence tanked to its lowest level since Q3 2023.

The S&P survey revealed that more than half of the respondents expect a rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE).

Meanwhile, domestic political issues are weighing on Sterling, as the Sun reported that Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham met with former UK Deputy PM Angela Rayner on Friday, fueling speculation that the two are plotting to oust PM Keir Starmer.

Looking ahead, the UK economic schedule will feature employment data on Tuesday. In the US, traders will eye the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, Retail Sales and Warren's appearance at the US Senate.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Chart Analysis GBP/USD

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3524. The pair holds a bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the latest simple moving average from the triple set at 1.3422, while also trading over the prior downtrend break level near 1.3027, suggesting underlying demand on dips. The recovery, however, still unfolds below the former uptrend break reference around 1.3844, indicating that the broader upside remains incomplete and that gains are occurring within a corrective phase rather than a clean trending move.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the 1.3422 simple moving average, with a deeper cushion emerging towards the prior downtrend break level at 1.3027 if selling pressure accelerates. On the topside, a sustained push toward the 1.3844 former uptrend break zone would be needed to reopen the path to more meaningful sterling strength, while failure to hold above the moving average support would hint that the current bullish bias is starting to fade.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.08%-0.06%0.11%-0.25%0.09%-0.04%-0.38%
EUR0.08%0.02%0.15%-0.19%0.16%0.04%-0.32%
GBP0.06%-0.02%0.13%-0.18%0.14%0.02%-0.35%
JPY-0.11%-0.15%-0.13%-0.30%0.02%-0.15%-0.47%
CAD0.25%0.19%0.18%0.30%0.33%0.17%-0.16%
AUD-0.09%-0.16%-0.14%-0.02%-0.33%-0.14%-0.49%
NZD0.04%-0.04%-0.02%0.15%-0.17%0.14%-0.35%
CHF0.38%0.32%0.35%0.47%0.16%0.49%0.35%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading 

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.