GBP/USD Price Forecast: The potential support level to watch is near 1.2600

GBP/USD trades in the negative territory around 1.2700 in Monday’s early European session.
The negative outlook of the pair remains intact below the 100-day EMA, with a bearish RSI indicator.
The first downside target to watch is the 1.2600 psychological level; the immediate resistance level is seen at 1.2834.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair tumbles to near 1.2700 during the early European session on Monday, pressured by the firmer US Dollar (USD) broadly. The US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff threats, the rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia and the rising expectation for less aggressive Fed rate cuts support the Greenback and act as a headwind for GBP/USD. The release of US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data will be the highlight on Monday.

Technically, the negative view of GBP/USD prevails, with the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The downward momentum of the major pair is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands below the midline around 44.40.

The initial support level for GBP/USD emerges at the 1.2600 psychological level. Sustained bearish momentum could drag the major pair to the lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 1.2445. A break below this level could push prices lower toward 1.2331, the low of April 23.

On the bright side, the first upside barrier is located at 1.2834, the low of November 6. Extended gains above this level could pave the way for a test of the 1.2890-1.2900 zone, representing the round mark and the 100-day EMA. The psychological level and the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band of 1.3000 appear to be a tough nut to crack for bulls.

GBP/USD daily chart

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

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