GBP/USD Price Forecast: Struggles to build on move beyond 1.3200 amid bearish setup
- GBP/USD attracts some buyers for the second straight day amid a mildly softer US Dollar.
- The UK political crisis holds back GBP bulls from placing fresh bets and caps spot prices.
- The bearish technical setup suggests that a further move up is more likely to be sold into.
The GBP/USD pair sticks to its positive bias for the second straight day, though it lacks bullish conviction and trades just above the 1.3200 mark during the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) remains depressed below its highest level since May 2025, touched on Thursday, and acts as a tailwind for spot prices.
However, the UK political crisis holds back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the British Pound (GBP) and caps the upside for the GBP/USD pair. Furthermore, a bearish technical setup warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful recovery from the 1.3140 area, or the lowest since November, set on Wednesday.
Against the backdrop of the recent repeated failures near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, this week's break below the 1.3300 mark was seen as a key trigger for the GBP/USD bears. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 47, suggesting consolidative conditions rather than clear trend strength.
However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows the MACD line modestly above the signal line and hovering around zero. This hints at tentative bullish momentum that is not yet strong enough to challenge the GBP/USD pair's dominant downtrend witnessed over the past two months or so.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 200-period SMA at 1.3384, and spot prices would need a sustained break above this level to ease the broader bearish bias and open the way for a more constructive recovery phase. On the downside, intraday setbacks are likely to be driven more by price action than by clearly defined structural supports.
Meanwhile, traders will be watching the recent lows around the mid-1.3100s as a provisional near-term floor for the GBP/USD pair until fresh technical levels emerge.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.07% | -0.10% | -0.04% | 0.29% | 0.04% | -0.22% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | 0.07% | 0.06% | 0.13% | 0.44% | 0.16% | -0.07% | |
| GBP | 0.07% | -0.07% | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.38% | 0.12% | -0.13% | |
| JPY | 0.10% | -0.06% | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.39% | 0.11% | -0.12% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | -0.13% | -0.06% | -0.06% | 0.33% | 0.05% | -0.20% | |
| AUD | -0.29% | -0.44% | -0.38% | -0.39% | -0.33% | -0.26% | -0.52% | |
| NZD | -0.04% | -0.16% | -0.12% | -0.11% | -0.05% | 0.26% | -0.24% | |
| CHF | 0.22% | 0.07% | 0.13% | 0.12% | 0.20% | 0.52% | 0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
