GBP/USD edges up as weak US jobs data offsets risk aversion
- GBP/USD rises as weak US labor data caps the Dollar’s rebound.
- Iran threats sour sentiment, but Sterling holds gains above 1.3200.
- UK growth stays sluggish as stagflation risks cloud the outlook.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) registers modest gains on Tuesday after Iran's IRGC threatened to attack US companies as of April 1, turning the market mood sour, while the US Dollar (USD) trimmed some of its earlier losses. Nevertheless, the move was short-lived as GBP/USD trades at 1.3190, up 0.04%.
Sterling gains as soft JOLTS counters Iran threat and Dollar
Iran's state media reported that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would target US companies within the region in retaliation for attacks on Iran. Some of the names targeted are Microsoft, Apple, Google, Intel and Boeing among the 18 companies warned by the IRGC.
In the headline, the Greenback cut some of its earlier losses as revealed by the US Dollar Index (DXY). However, the DXY, which measures the buck's performance against six currencies, edges towards 100.00, down 0.37%.
US jobs data revealed weakness in the labor market. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) revealed that vacancies fell from 7.24 million in January to 6.882 million in February. The data revealed that hiring deteriorated, falling 3.1 percentage points to 3.4% from the previous month, the US Department of Labor said.
In the UK, the economy expanded by a mediocre 0.1% in Q4 2025, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in line with economists' estimates. Compared with a year earlier, GDP in the last quarter grew 1%, unchanged. It should be said that the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) downward revised Britain's economy from 1.2% to 0.7% last week.
Hence, the UK economy faces a stagflationary scenario prompted by a double whammy: the Middle East conflict underpinning energy prices and the UK economy at the brink of decelerating further. Despite this, money markets seem to be getting ahead of themselves, pricing in 59 basis points of BoE tightening. Conversely, the Fed most likely stands pat, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Given the backdrop, GBP/USD could rise further in the near term, with the first key resistance seen at the March 30 high at 1.3282. If broken, expect a move towards 1.3300 and beyond.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3192. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds well below the clustered 50–200-day simple moving averages around 1.3500, keeping the broader down phase from the 1.3800 area intact. Price is pinned between an ascending support trend line from 1.3035 and a descending resistance line from 1.3869, with the latest candles pressing the lower half of this contracting structure. The Fed Sentiment Index has pushed to fresh highs above 122, underscoring a stronger dollar backdrop that reinforces downside pressure while the pair remains capped beneath the descending trend line.
Immediate resistance emerges near 1.3330, where recent highs align beneath the descending trend line and the lower band of the moving-average cluster, with a break exposing 1.3400 and then the 1.3500 region as a stronger barrier. On the downside, initial support is at 1.3180–1.3200, just above the rising trend line drawn from 1.3035, and a clear close below this area would open 1.3100, followed by the 1.3035 swing low. As long as spot trades below 1.3330 and beneath the flattening medium-term averages, rallies are likely to be sold into, keeping the bias tilted to the downside toward the lower supports.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this month. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 2.41% | 2.27% | 1.88% | 1.97% | 3.67% | 4.80% | 3.71% | |
| EUR | -2.41% | -0.14% | -0.55% | -0.43% | 1.23% | 2.33% | 1.24% | |
| GBP | -2.27% | 0.14% | -0.38% | -0.29% | 1.37% | 2.47% | 1.40% | |
| JPY | -1.88% | 0.55% | 0.38% | 0.10% | 1.76% | 2.86% | 1.79% | |
| CAD | -1.97% | 0.43% | 0.29% | -0.10% | 1.66% | 2.76% | 1.68% | |
| AUD | -3.67% | -1.23% | -1.37% | -1.76% | -1.66% | 1.09% | 0.01% | |
| NZD | -4.80% | -2.33% | -2.47% | -2.86% | -2.76% | -1.09% | -1.04% | |
| CHF | -3.71% | -1.24% | -1.40% | -1.79% | -1.68% | -0.01% | 1.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
