GBP: On the lookout for warmer European relations – ING

In the UK today, we have local council elections. These normally present an opportunity for voters to punish the ruling party. However, in today's case, the opposition Conservative party seemingly has more to lose, given it has far more councillors up for re-election. Here, the Conservatives may lose out to the Reform party and confirm the five-way splintering of UK politics, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

0.8430 is the target if EUR/GBP can break clear of 0.8500

"We mention politics today because this month (19 May) sees the first UK-EU summit since Brexit. Expectations here are that the UK could sign a new Security and Defence Pact (SDF) with the EU - similar to the SDFs that the EU has with six other countries already. Over the summer, there could also be some progress on the issue of veterinary checks on border goods, ETS carbon allowance alignment and also youth mobility."

"The design from the Labour government here is that a closer relationship with Europe could see the Office for Budget Responsibility 'score' UK growth prospects higher in November and give Chancellor Rachel Reeves more room to spend."

"Closer European relations normally help sterling. So let's see whether EUR/GBP can push lower ahead of that 19 May meeting. 0.8430 is the target if EUR/GBP can break clear of 0.8500."