GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Breaks range, bulls eye 216 as RSI is bullish
- GBP/JPY breaks 212.00-215.00 range, opening path toward 216.60.
- RSI remains bullish, supporting further upside despite intervention threats.
- Drop below 215.00 exposes 214.50 and 50-day SMA support.
The Pound Sterling rises against the Japanese Yen, up 0.17% on Wednesday, despite Japanese authorities' threats to intervene in the foreign exchange markets to propel the Yen. At the time of writing, the GBP/JPY trades at 215.93, up 0.16%.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The GBP/JPY has broken the 212.00-215.00 range during the day, opening the door to test higher prices, like the 216.00 psychological figure, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) high of 216.60.
Worth noting that momentum is bullish as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). But vocal intervention by Japanese authorities can cap the GBP/JPY advance to test higher prices.
If GBP/JPY clears the YTD, a potential leg-up can form as the pair tests 217.00. Above those levels sits the psychological 220.00 figure. On the contrary, Yen’s strength opens the door to test a downslope resistance trendline-turned-support at around 215.00. If cleared, further losses lie ahead at 214.50, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 214.07 up next.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
