GBP: Fiscal policy remains the weakest link – ING

The rug was pulled from under the sterling rally yesterday when the Financial Times reported that the Office for Budget Responsibility had indeed lowered its productivity forecasts for the UK economy. This will deprive Chancellor Rachel Reeves of expected revenues and potentially add £9bn to the fiscal gap she faces in November's budget, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/GBP may continue to trade in a 0.8650-0.8715 range

"The negative event risk of November's budget is offset by the recently turned hawkish Bank of England. Sterling has sold off this morning on a slightly sub-consensus August CPI services reading at 4.7%, even if the BoE's preferred measure of services inflation has remained unchanged at 4.2% YoY."

"We think the US Dollar (USD) will be the dominant FX theme, and GBP/USD should find support near 1.3600 before being dragged above 1.37. Sterling's fiscal vulnerability looks more like a story for EUR/GBP. Yet a still hawkish BoE may mean EUR/GBP continues to trade in a 0.8650-0.8715 range."