GBP: Downside risks versus USD with conflict scenarios – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts expect the BoE’s cautious stance to support the US Dollar against the Pound in the near term. They see GBP/USD holding a 1.33 floor under a contained conflict, but warn that escalation and Strait closures could drive a broader USD rally, sending GBP/USD below 1.30 even as GBP outperforms EUR.

GBP/USD levels hinge on conflict path

"The BoE will likely strike a cautious tone given geopolitical uncertainty and delay any pending easing. We expect USD to remain bid in the near-term vs the GBP, but the trajectory is dependent on the duration of the conflict."

"In case of limited regional war (with lower intensity strikes spread out and no ground invasion) and things eventually petering out, we expect 1.33 to be a comfortable floor for the GBP."

"However, in case of further escalation and more permanent closures to the Strait, we will see a broad based USD rally which can send GBP back below 1.30."

"GBP will likely outperform EUR given the delayed pass-through of inflation and lower sensitivity to oil imports and China."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)