Fed’s Williams: Inflation likely to be 3% this year

John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York, said in a prepared speech at the Cynosure Group Spring Symposium in New York, United States (US) on Monday, that there is no way to know yet how the Iran war impact will play out for the United States economy. He also claimed that US monetary policy remains well positioned for uncertain economy.

Key quotes:

US monetary policy remains well positioned for uncertain economy.

No way to know yet how Iran war impact will play out for US economy.

Risks to both sides of Fed's mandates have increased.

Economy is presenting 'unusual set of circumstances'.

Market energy outlook benign, but there are 'plausible' bad scenarios.

Inflation likely to be 3% this year, back to 2% target in 2027.

'Notable' supply chain disruptions emerging.

Tariffs and energy are big inflation drivers, underlying inflation mostly stable.

It's good that inflation expectations remain contained.

US economic growth expected between 2% and 2.25% this year.

Economy has been very resilient.

Jobless rate expected to stay around 4.25% to 4.50%.

In a time of uncertainty and economic shocks, it's natural to see diverging views on FOMC.

Dissents happen more in times of uncertainty, shows Fed grappling with issues.

More agreement about policy stance than FOMC vote might suggest.

There's been a huge shift in labor force growth in US.

Job market break even might range between zero and 50,000 jobs per month now.

The job market is holding up well so far.

We are not seeing longer term inflation expectations move much, that's encouraging.

In balance, job market is helping contain inflation.

Fed's job is to make sure inflation expectations hold steady.

Tariff-based inflation should ease.

R-star is likely higher than most recent low readings.

3% is likely long run Fed funds rate.”