|

Fed Williams: Job market stabilizes as inflation uncertainty looms

John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) of New York, spoke on Thursday and said that the job market has stabilized, acknowledging that he is not surprised to see near-term inflation expectations rise.

Key takeaways:


FED INDEPENDENCE DELIVERS BETTER ECONOMIC OUTCOMES

NOT TIME TO WORRY ABOUT FED INDEPENDENCE, STAFF FOCUSED ON MISSION

CONTEXT MATTERS FOR INFLATION GIVEN PERSISTENCE ABOVE TARGET

TARIFFS APPEAR TO HAVE MOSTLY WORKED THROUGH ECONOMY

JOB MARKET IS NOT DRIVING INFLATION PRESSURES, JOB MARKET IS NOT TIGHT

NOT SURPRISED TO SEE NEAR TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS RISE

IS SEEING PRETTY STABLE LONGER TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

THERE ARE EMERGING ISSUES WITH SUPPLY CHAIN PRESSURES

WE ARE NOT SEEING SIGNS OF PROBLEMS WITH INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

IS NOT YET SEEING MAJOR SECOND ROUND IMPACT ON INFLATION

THERE'S A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AROUND ENERGY PRICE OUTLOOK

THE JOB MARKET HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF STABILIZATION

THE JOB MARKET IS NOT 'HOT' BUT ALSO NOT SLOWING DRAMATICALLY

WEIGHS ALL MEASURES WHEN TAKING STOCK OF INFLATION

FED AMPLE RESERVE SYSTEM HAS WORKED VERY WELL

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.35%0.92%0.33%0.06%0.53%0.40%0.22%
EUR-0.35%0.55%-0.06%-0.30%0.15%0.01%-0.14%
GBP-0.92%-0.55%-0.62%-0.86%-0.39%-0.52%-0.66%
JPY-0.33%0.06%0.62%-0.26%0.20%0.06%-0.12%
CAD-0.06%0.30%0.86%0.26%0.45%0.31%0.20%
AUD-0.53%-0.15%0.39%-0.20%-0.45%-0.12%-0.24%
NZD-0.40%-0.01%0.52%-0.06%-0.31%0.12%-0.14%
CHF-0.22%0.14%0.66%0.12%-0.20%0.24%0.14%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD flirts with 0.7000, lowest since early August amid bullish USD

AUD/USD hits a fresh low since early August during the Asian session on Friday and looks vulnerable near 0.7000 after breaking below the 200-day SMA overnight. Against the backdrop of the hawkish Fed, a two-day rally in oil prices revives inflation fears and continues to push US bond yields to multi-year highs. Adding to this, geopolitical risks lift the US Dollar to a two-month high, overshadowing RBA rate hike bets and weighing on the pair.

USD/JPY pulls back from three-week high after failing near 159.00

USD/JPY edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, stalling its recent strong move to a three-week high of 159.00 as Japanese Yen bears turn cautious amid intervention fears. Meanwhile, the US Dollar retains a strong bullish undertone as the Fed's hawkish outlook and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to multi-year peaks. Furthermore, the BoJ's dovish rate hike last week might cap JPY and support spot prices.

Gold treads water below $4,300

Gold grabs some buying attention and advances marginally at the end of the week, partially retracing the weekly decline, although it is still navigating below the key $4,300 mark per troy ounce. The fresh selling bias on the Greenback and the modest decline in US Treasury yields appear to support the humble advance in the precious metal.

Week ahead: Rate hike bets face a crucial data week
Despite the solid drop from the mid-September high, oil prices remained in the driver’s seat for another week, setting the tone in financial markets. Six months have passed since the late-February start of the US-Iran conflict, and there is still no breakthrough in the stalled talks, despite pressure from regional leaders and the rest of the world.
CFTC Report: Defensive currency positioning takes hold
The week in one sentence: Sterling and Euro shorts deepened in the week to September 22, while Yen longs were cut sharply. Oil positioning improved despite a steep price decline, and Gold exposure remained crowded. The main signal was a more defensive currency positioning backdrop.
Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.