Fed: Hawkish bias and extended hold – TD Securities

TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect the Fed to drop its easing bias in June and keep rates on hold through 2026, citing hawkish FOMC momentum, firm inflation and a stabilized labor market. Cuts are not expected to resume until 2027.

Easing bias seen removed then long pause

"Last week, Fed communication was particularly notable — with Waller's hawkish shift on Friday being the highlight. Governor Waller now supports dropping the easing bias in the FOMC statement, joining the hawkish dissenters at the April FOMC. The recent stabilization in the labor market has allowed him, and other Fed officials, to turn their attention to the inflation side of the mandate."

"We believe that the FOMC will indeed drop the easing bias in June before staying on hold for all of 2026. Hawkish momentum was already growing at the April FOMC, with "many" participants supporting the move in the minutes last week. Since then, both April payrolls and CPI surprised hawkishly."

"It will prove difficult for new Fed Chair Warsh (who was sworn in on Friday) to achieve cuts in the near term. We do not believe he will stand in the Committee's way when dropping the easing bias, as he will need to garner credibility as a consensus builder."

"We expect the Fed to remain on hold for all of 2026. Inflation will remain high for the rest of the year, and the labor market has stabilized, allowing the FOMC to remain patient. Once inflation progress resumes in 2027, the Fed will likely restart easing towards neutral — with three quarterly cuts starting in March and ending in September at 3.00%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)