Exciting and likely volatile days ahead for the Aussie – Commerzbank

Australian inflation figures – but only for November – will be released on Wednesday, January 10 at 00:30 GMT. Economists at Commerzbank analyze Aussie’s outlook ahead of the Monthly Consumer Price Index report.

Any premature interpretation of the figures should be made with caution

If the economists surveyed by Bloomberg are correct, we should see another significant drop in the monthly indicator. It would increase the likelihood that the Q4 figures will finally fall below 5%. Such a decline would certainly be a good sign for the RBA. It would mean that the rate hikes are finally having an effect. It would also increase the likelihood that we have reached the peak of interest rates with the somewhat surprising hike in November.

If the labor market remains strong next week, as it has been recently, a soft landing for the Australian economy looks increasingly likely.

However, any premature interpretation of the figures should be made with caution. The monthly figures are generally difficult to forecast. As a result, we could very well be in for a surprise. The mere fact that another rate hike by the RBA cannot be completely ruled out, unlike by other G10 central banks, makes for exciting (and likely volatile) days ahead for the Aussie.