Euro weakens as strong ADP data and Trump’s Iran comments boost US Dollar

United States (US) private employers added 42,250 workers, supporting the USD.
Trump says the US “may have to give Iran another hit,” increasing demand for the USD as a safe-haven.
ECB officials warn about long-term Eurozone growth challenges despite resilient labor-market conditions.

Agustin Wazne FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair weakens toward the 1.1600 region on Tuesday as the United States (US) Dollar (USD) strengthens following solid labor-market data and rising Treasury yields, while mixed developments in the Eurozone limit support for the shared currency.

The latest ADP employment report showed that United States (US) private employers added 42,250 jobs in the first week of May, marking the strongest reading since the series began in October 2025. The data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts.

Additional USD demand emerged after US President Donald Trump adopted a more aggressive tone regarding Iran. Trump stated that “we may have to give Iran another hit” and added that “Iran is begging to make a deal,” reviving concerns about a possible escalation in the Middle East and increasing safe-haven flows into the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, Eurozone sentiment remained fragile after European Central Bank (ECB) officials highlighted concerns about the region’s long-term growth outlook. A recent ECB report noted that labor market trends and immigration continue supporting economic activity, but policymakers warned that structural demographic challenges may weigh on future growth prospects.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1599, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds beneath both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1638 and the 100-period SMA at 1.1710. The pair is pressing lows near the only nearby horizontal support at 1.1592, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips into oversold territory around 27, hinting that while downside pressure dominates, the pace of the decline could slow if sellers hesitate at this floor.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at 1.1612, followed by 1.1624 and the 1.1635 barrier that aligns with the 20-period SMA just above at 1.1638, forming a dense cap before the broader resistance of the 100-period SMA at 1.1710. On the downside, a clear break under 1.1592 would expose fresh lows, reinforcing the prevailing bearish structure on the 4-hour timeframe.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Agustin Wazne

FXStreet

Agustin Wazne joined FXStreet as a Junior News Editor, focusing on Commodities and covering Majors.

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 on fresh USD supply

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar retreats from 17-month highs as traders take profits off the table ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar draws support from reviving expectations of a November interest rate hike amid elevated global yields and inflation risks.

USD/JPY struggles near 158.00 as USD retreats ahead of NFP

USD/JPY is struggling for fresh impetus near 158.00, moving away from the top end of its weekly range in the Asian session on Friday, after hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI and amid a broad US Dollar retreat. Traders reposition themselves ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Gold fades the earlier optimism; back below $4,200

Gold could not sustain the post-NFP bull run past the $4,200 mark per troy ounce, receding toward the $4,180 region at the end of the week. The precious metal’s inconclusive price action comes amid fresh selling pressure hurting the US Dollar as investors assess the latest NFP data.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP gains reinforce bullish outlook

Cryptocurrency prices are broadly recovering on Friday, led by Bitcoin moving above $86,000. Ethereum has reaffirmed its bullish outlook, rising above $2,700 while the immediate area at $2,800 caps upside. Meanwhile, Ripple hovers near $1.54.

Week ahead – Fed minutes in the spotlight amid bond market rout

Energy crisis and soaring bond yields to stay in driver’s seat in quiet week. Fed minutes eyed after drop in October rate hike bets. ISM services PMI and Treasury auctions to be watched too. Canadian employment, Japanese wages and ECB minutes also on tap.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.