Euro sticks to positive bias above 1.1600 as bulls await Fed rate decision

EUR/USD attracts some buyers for the third straight day as the US-Iran peace deal undermines the USD.
The ECB’s hawkish outlook benefits the shared currency and further lends support to the currency pair.
Traders, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for the highly anticipated FOMC interest rate decision.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair trades with a positive bias for the third straight day and holds steady above the 1.1600 mark through the Asian session on Wednesday. Bulls, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting before positioning for an extension of the recent goodish recovery from the 1.1500 psychological mark, or over a two-month low, touched last week.

The latest optimism over an interim peace deal between the US and Iran keep the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) on the defensive, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. The shared currency, on the other hand, draws support from the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish signal following an interest rate hike for the first time in three years. In fact, the ECB raised its 2026 inflation projections to 3% amid prolonged energy shocks and broadening price pressures across the eurozone.

Furthermore, traders are still pricing in a roughly 40 basis points in additional hikes for 2026 by the ECB despite the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US and Iran agreed to a framework peace deal intended to end the war that began earlier in 2026. The initial memorandum of understanding (MOU) establishes a 60-day ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and sets the stage for technical negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. However, other details about the agreement remain scarce.

This, along with expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might still hike interest rates by 25 bps in December, holds back the USD bears from placing aggressive bets and caps the upside for the EUR/USD pair. Hence, market focus will remain glued to the crucial Fed rate decision, the latest economic projections, and the so-called dot plot. Adding to this, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh's comments during the post-meeting presser will be scrutinized for cues about the future policy path.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

AUD/USD stays defensive below 0.7150 after Chinese data

AUD/USD remains on the back foot below 0.7150 in the Asian session on Tuesday, close to an over three-week low touched the previous day. US bond yields hold near multi-year highs ahead of the FOMC meeting and oil-driven inflation risks, supporting the US Dollar and weighing on the currency pair. Mixed Chinese activity data for August also fail to inspire the Aussie.

USD/JPY extends gains toward 155.00 amid USD resurgence

USD/JPY keeps pushing higher toward 155.00 early Tuesday, looking for more upside, as traders await the FOMC and BoJ meetings this week. Meanwhile, Fed rate-hike bets and oil-driven inflation risks keep US bond yields near multi-year highs, supporting the US Dollar and the pair. That said, a more hawkish repricing of the BoJ normalization path might continue to underpin the Japanese Yen and could limit USD/JPY's upside. .

Gold drops further; focus remains on $4,250

Gold adds to Monday’s pessimism and revisits the $4,260 region per troy ounce on Tuesday. The yellow metal’s extra weakness follows another positive day in the US Dollar, mixed US Treasury yields and steady pre-Fed caution.

Dogecoin clings to EMA support as recovery lacks conviction

Dogecoin (DOGE) hovers around $0.083 at the time of writing on Tuesday after finding support around the key support zone the previous day. Quiet institutional demand, along with mixed derivatives positioning, suggests fading interest in the dog-themed meme coin.

Markets slide as FOMC approaches

The US Dollar remains strong as markets turn increasingly cautious ahead of the FOMC. Stocks are tumbling, while Gold and Silver are moving lower under pressure from the stronger Dollar. The Japanese Yen is weaker again, while Crypto is correcting. BTC is approaching a key technical test and could fall below its 50-week moving average, while ETH remains above $2,405.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.