Euro: Range floor holds into ECB decisions – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

ING’s Chris Turner argues EUR/USD’s test of 1.1500 after the hawkish FOMC is unlikely to extend much lower, with 1.14/1.15 seen as the summer range floor given ING’s view that the Fed will not hike. The bank highlights upcoming ECB decisions, a neutral Swiss National Bank stance and sees EUR/CHF drifting back toward the 0.9250 area.

ECB and SNB shape euro crosses

"EUR/USD had a strong test of 1.1500 on the hawkish FOMC last night, but there might not be too much appetite to take it substantially lower just now. The ball is now back in the ECB's court and whether it chooses to hike in the July or September meetings – or not hike rates at all."

"At this stage, and given the house view that the Fed is not going to hike, 1.14/1.15 can remain the lower end of the range this summer."

"We see the Swiss National Bank on a prolonged pause. There could be some slight upside risk to EUR/CHF today not only from a neutral SNB, but also from higher global rates in general after last night's Fed and some potentially better news out of the Middle East. EUR/CHF can head back to the 09250 area."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

British Pound eases to 1.3450 area following downwardly revised Manufacturing PMI data

The British Pound is trimming previous gains against the US Dollar on Monday, returning to the mid-range of the 1.3400s down from fresh seven-week highs, above 1.3500 earlier on the day. Weaker-than-expected UK manufacturing data added pressure on the Pound, which rallied at the Asian session opening, amid news of a halt to the hostilities in Iran.

EUR/USD remains under pressure; looks at 1.1500 on firm US ISM

EUR/USD now accelerates its downtrend and trades in the low 1.1500s on the back of the marginal improvement in the US Dollar, all in the wake of solid US ISM Manufacturing data on Wednesday. The Greenback, in the meantime, remains far from a sustainable rebound in the current context of cooling geopolitical tensions.

Gold remains supported near $4,000

Gold adds to Friday’s pullback, although it remains well underpinned by the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce on Monday. The US Dollar’s inconclusive price action seems enough to cap the yellow metal’s potential upside, although renewed hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and fading expectations of a Fed rate hike could limit the Greenback’s recovery.

Week ahead: US payrolls report and AI earnings to keep investors on edge

After the Fed decision, NFP report awaited for more rate hike clues. Employment also on the agenda in Canada and New Zealand. Chinese trade and Japanese wage data to be watched too. But Iran and AI headlines to remain in driver’s seat for risk sentiment.

The Bitcoin futures yield collapse: Once over 20%, now less than Treasury notes

Once a goldmine for carry traders, Bitcoin futures have flipped, consistently underperforming plain‑vanilla U.S. Treasuries every month since February. Carry trades consistently yielded 20% or more across regulated and unregulated crypto exchanges during the 2021 bull market. The strategy involved shorting Bitcoin futures while simultaneously buying a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF).

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.