|

Euro holds gains against Japanese Yen as Germany’s Trade Surplus widens in May

  • EUR/JPY maintains its upward momentum following stronger-than-expected trade data from Germany.
  • Germany's May trade surplus widened to €19.1 billion, as exports grew 0.9% while imports fell 2.5%.
  • The Japanese Yen could gain support from mounting speculation of official foreign exchange market intervention by Japanese authorities.

EUR/JPY extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 185.70 during the early European hours on Thursday. The currency cross maintains its upward momentum following stronger-than-expected seasonally-adjusted Trade Balance data from Germany.

Germany's Trade Surplus widened to €19.1 billion in May, marking the largest surplus since February. This comfortably beat market forecasts of €14.8 billion and followed an upwardly revised €14.7 billion surplus in April. This expansion was driven by an unexpected 0.9% month-on-month surge in German exports, which hit a three-and-a-half-year high and defied expectations of a 0.3% decline. Conversely, imports dropped by 2.5% to a three-month low, missing the estimate for a 0.1% growth and reversing the previous month's 1.1% gain.

However, the upside of the EUR/JPY cross could be limited as the Japanese Yen (JPY) could receive support from mounting speculation that Japanese authorities might intervene in the foreign exchange market. Michael Nizard, head of multi-asset and overlay at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, noted that the yen's current weakness is excessive and fails to reflect the strong fundamentals of the Japanese economy. He warned that this stark misalignment could ultimately prompt major central banks to launch a coordinated market intervention.

Supporting the narrative of economic resilience, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) latest quarterly report left its overall assessment unchanged, viewing most of its nine regional economies as "recovering moderately." The report highlighted that many regions saw firms, including smaller enterprises, deliver substantial wage hikes this year, though some businesses warned that this rising pay may be difficult to sustain. Additionally, companies are maintaining price increases to cover escalating labor and distribution expenses, with multiple regions reporting that firms are considering further price hikes for food and daily essentials starting this summer.

Economic Indicator

Trade Balance s.a.

The Trade Balance released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows a trade surplus, while a negative value shows a trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the EUR. If a steady demand in exchange for German exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the EUR.
Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany Trade Balance

Read more.

Last release: Thu Jul 09, 2026 06:00

Frequency: Monthly

Actual: €19.1B

Consensus: €14.8B

Previous: €14.5B

Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

More from Akhtar Faruqui
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD off highs, back to 1.3620

GBP/USD remains slightly on the defensive at the end of the week, receding to the low 1.3600s after hitting fresh tops past 1.3670 earlier in the day. Cable’s correction comes after two daily gains in a row and amid a tepid advance in the Greenback, while poor UK data also accompany the downside.

EUR/USD treads water below 1.1700

EUR/USD now trades with modest losses around 1.1670 following another unsuccessful atempt to advance past 1.1700 the figure in a convincing fashion. The pair’s decline follows a maginal rebound in the US Dollar as market participants continue to assess recent US data as well as developments from the US bond market.

Gold trims gains, recedes to the sub-$4,600 area

Gold rapidly leaves behind Thursday’s inconclusive price action and advances markedly on Friday, briefly surpassing the $4,600 mark per troy ounce to hit three-month peaks. Meanwhile, the precious metal’s solid performance comes despite marginal gains in the buck coupled with another day of rising US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP bulls accelerate rally amid rising ETF inflows

The cryptocurrency market remains bullish on Friday, led by Bitcoin’s surge above $77,000. Altcoins, including Ethereum and Ripple, mirror BTC’s positive outlook, trading near $2,400 and $1.35, respectively.

Week ahead – Fed’s Jackson Hole and Nvidia earnings to dictate markets

Kevin Warsh to make his Jackson Hole debut amid confusing messaging. But a major hawkish surprise unlikely after bond market intervention. Nvidia earnings to also determine market direction as stock rally cools.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.