Euro declines below 1.1450 on US-Iran peace deal uncertainty, traders await Eurozone, US PMI data

EUR/USD posts modest losses near 1.1425 in Tuesday’s early European session.
Traders braced for the prospect of US rate hikes later this year.
Uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace deal weighs on the riskier currency, such as the Euro.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair trades with mild losses around 1.1425 during the early European session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Euro (EUR) amid risk-off sentiment and a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) stance. Traders will keep an eye on the preliminary readings of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from Germany, the Eurozone and the United States (US) later on Tuesday.

Traders positioned for a more hawkish Fed under the leadership of new Chair Kevin Warsh. Last week, the US central bank decided to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%. Warsh said during the press conference that “price stability” would be the Fed’s guiding principle.

Markets have priced in nearly an 89% chance of a Fed hike in December, up from 61% before last week’s FOMC meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace deal could boost the Greenback as a safe-haven currency. US Vice President JD Vance said on Monday that Iran agreed to admit nuclear monitors into the country after negotiations in Switzerland. However, Tehran denied making any new commitments.

Washington will mediate another round of talks beginning Tuesday to end clashes in southern Lebanon between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel, according to a US State Department official.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

GBP/USD stays weak below 1.3250 on UK politics, PMIs eyed

GBP/USD loses ground below 1.3250 in the European session on Tuesday. Political uncertainty in the United Kingdom continues to weigh on the British Pound, while the US Dollar capitalizes on the risk-off mood and hawkish Fed bets. The UK and US S&P Global preliminary PMI data are next of note for the major.

EUR/USD keeps range above 1.1400 ahead of German/ Eurozone PMIs

EUR/USD remains stuck in a tight range above 1.1400 in Tuesday's European trading. The US Dollar holds the upper hand against the Euro amid risk-off sentiment and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, leaving the pair on the defensive. Traders now await the preliminary readings of the Purchasing Managers Index from Germany, the Eurozone, and the United States later on Tuesday.

Gold drops to nearly two-week low, seems vulnerable amid Fed hike bets, bullish USD

Gold adds to its Asian session losses, and drops to a nearly two-week low, around the $4,115 region in the last hour amid a bullish US Dollar. Despite positive signals from US-Iran peace talks, widespread skepticism remains toward a final deal. This helps the USD in preserving its recent strong gains to the highest level since May 2025.

Bears cap Solana below $75 as ETF, retail demand wanes

Solana edges below $72 risking a third consecutive day of losses that could erase the 5% gains from Friday. SOL-focused Exchange Traded Funds reflect muted demand from institutional investors following a minor recovery last week. Meanwhile, retail trading activity hints at a bearish positional buildup.

Big day of PMIs ahead

In the euro area, June flash PMIs are released. Most respondents will likely have answered after the US-Iran deal, yet the impact of lower oil prices is unlikely to already show up in activity data. We expect manufacturing to edge down to 50.9 (May: 51.6), while we expect services to see a modest improvement to 48.8 (May: 47.7).

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.