|

Euro: Bullish bias but capped by resistance against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report EUR/USD has eased after Wednesday’s surge, with current price action seen as consolidation between 1.1420 and 1.1465. On a 1–3 week view, the Euro retains an upside bias, though momentum toward the 1.1520 resistance is still uncertain, and a break below 1.1405 would signal a return to broader range trading.

Euro consolidates after recent rally

"24-HOUR VIEW: After EUR surged to a high of 1.1482 on Wednesday, we highlighted yesterday that “while the rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, there is scope for EUR to test 1.1490.” We also highlighted that “we do not expect the significant resistance at 1.1520 to come into view.” However, instead of testing 1.1490, EUR pulled back from 1.1476 to 1.1430 before closing at 1.1441 (-0.19%). The immediate upward pressure has eased, and the current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase, which is expected to be between 1.1420 and 1.1465."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our update from yesterday (16 Jul, spot at 1.1470) remains valid. As highlighted, while EUR “is likely to trade with an upside bias, it is too early to determine whether there is sufficient momentum for EUR to reach the significant resistance level at 1.1520.” On the downside, a breach of 1.1405 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that EUR has reverted to a range-trading phase."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

(The story was corrected on July 17 at 08:25 GMT to correct author name as "United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann", not Christopher Wong)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Editor's Picks

USD/JPY eyes August swing low, near 155.20 ahead of US NFP

USD/JPY retests the August monthly swing low during the Asian session on Friday as a more hawkish repricing of BoJ rate-hike bets and a suspected intervention continue to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is seen consolidating the previous day's heavy losses amid soft US bond yields, further weighing on the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200; US NFP awaited

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7200, near its highest level since mid-May, as bulls await the US NFP report for more cues on the Fed's policy path before placing fresh bets. Meanwhile, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level in over a week and acts as a tailwind for the Aussie amid the RBA's hawkish tilt.

Gold bulls seem hesitant below $4,500 amid modest USD bounce ahead of US NFP

Gold remains on the defensive below the $4,500 mark through the Asian session, snapping a two-day winning streak amid a modest US Dollar uptick. The commodity, however, remains close to the weekly high, which it touched the previous day, as traders keenly await the release of the closely watched US monthly employment details. The popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will provide more cues about the Fed's policy path amid receding bets of a September rate hike.

Bitcoin clears $80,000 on reduced rate hike odds – Zcash, Ethena rise

Bitcoin is trading above $80,000 on Friday, sustaining the broader cryptocurrency market's risk-on sentiment. Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller signaled support for a potential pause in interest rates on Thursday, lowering the odds of a September rate hike to 50%. Zcash (ZEC) and Ethena (ENA) emerge as top performers over the last 24 hours.

NFP preview: Can jobs data ease rate hike fears?

As we move to the end of the week, the focus shifts to the macro data, and to the strength of the labour market in the US. August payrolls are released on Friday at 1330 BST, and the market is expecting a reading of 58k. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1% and wage growth is expected to moderate slightly to 3% last month, down from 3.2%.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.