|

EUR/USD: The direction of travel lies to the 1.0700 area – ING

The strong US jobs data swung EUR/USD back under 1.0800 on Friday. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.

The market still prices a 55% chance of an ECB rate cut in April

It is tempting to say the direction of travel lies to the 1.0700 area, and if so, it will probably be a function of the US side of the equation. From the Eurozone side, the calendar is relatively light. 

Given the market still prices a 55% chance of an ECB rate cut in April, there is always a risk of a EUR-positive back-up in short-term rates if that cut is removed. It is not clear this will be the week in which the April rate cut is removed.

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD rises to near 1.1650 amid dovish Fed expectations

EUR/USD edges higher after registering gains in the previous six successive sessions, trading around 1.1650 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar struggles amid dovish Federal Reserve expectations. Friday’s slower-than-expected US jobs growth suggests the US central bank could hold interest rates steady later this month.

GBP/USD rebounds from three-week low, eyes mid-1.3400s as Fed concerns weigh on USD

The GBP/USD pair attracts some buyers near a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and recovers slightly from a nearly three-week low, touched during the Asian session on Monday. Spot prices, for now, seem to have snapped a four-day losing streak and currently trade around the 1.3435 region, up 0.20% for the day.

Gold tests $4,600, then retreats despite geopolitical, Fed woes

Gold retreats from fresh record highs of $4,601 in the Asian session on Monday. Reports that US President Donald Trump is weighing a series of potential military options in Iran fuel the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions will likely keep Gold underpinned despite the latest profit-taking pullback. 

Week ahead: US CPI might challenge the geopolitics-boosted Dollar

Geopolitics may try to steal the limelight from US data. A possible US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could dictate market movements. Dollar strength might be tested if investors refocus on Fed expectations. A crammed data calendar next week, US CPI comes on Tuesday; Fedspeak to intensify. Euro weakness persists, lingering risk of deterioration in US-EU relations.

2026 economic and market outlook

As an aggregate, key economic indicators point towards the global economy growing further in out 2026 Economic and Market outlook. In particular, the G20 countries, which account for roughly 80% of the total global GDP are projected to grow by 2.9% next year.

XRP trades under pressure amid weak retail demand

XRP presses down on the 50-day EMA support as risk-averse sentiment spreads despite a positive start to 2026. XRP faces declining retail demand, as reflected in futures Open Interest, which has fallen to $4.15 billion.