- EUR/USD remains in the hands of the bears that eye a test of 0.9900.
- The bears need a break of 0.9940 support to open the path lower.
It will be an interesting start to the week considering the conflicting technical landscape for the US dollar and EUR/USD in the following analysis of the charts. Nevertheless, it could be a quiet start considering the Nonfarm Payrolls and volatility that would be expected to taper off due to the US long weekend ahead of this week's European Central Bank meeting.
Looking at the US dollar first, the 4-hour Shark pattern is a harmonic formation and the price would be expected to decline from the CD leg:
The index is already meeting resistance in a 20-year high and a break of supporting a touch below 109 the figure could open the gates for a significant decline through the 108s. In effect, this would be expected to see the euro rally into and around the ECB meeting this week:
However, the current environment on the 4-hour chart for the euro is arguably bearish. The price dropped heavily from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement area that met with the resistance of the M-formation's neckline. The tweezer top is also a bearish feature and a move to test support could be on the cards at around 0.9900 in a 50 pip decline for the start of the week should 0.9940 give out.
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