EUR/USD holds steady below 1.1600 ahead of Trump's speech

EUR/USD flat lines near 1.1590 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
Trump is set to speak to the nation on the war with Iran later on Thursday.
Markets are raising pricing in potential rate hikes from the ECB in 2026.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair holds steady around 1.1590 during the early Asian session on Thursday. Markets turn cautious ahead of US President Donald Trump’s address on the Iran war. The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims report is due later on Thursday. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data will be in the spotlight on Friday.

Trump will address the nation at 01:00 GMT on Thursday to give an “update” on the war with Iran. The speech will be the first major national address the president has delivered on the conflict since the first joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February. A White House official said that Trump is expected to tout US military successes against Iran and reiterate a two- to three-week timeline for concluding the operation.

Easing tensions between the US. and Iran could improve market sentiment, which might weigh on the US Dollar (USD) as a safe-haven asset and create a tailwind for the major pair.

Financial markets are now pricing in a higher probability of the European Central Bank (ECB) tightening, with a 76% odds of a 25-basis-point (bps) increase by June 2026, according to Reuters. Major banks, such as J.P. Morgan and Barclays, have revised their forecasts to include up to three interest rate hikes this year.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

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