EUR/USD consolidates near 1.13 – OCBC

The Euro (EUR) is consolidating as markets digest tariff concerns and await the ECB meeting, where a 25bp rate cut is expected. While bullish momentum continues, dovish ECB rhetoric or pushback on recent euro strength could limit further gains. Key resistance stands at 1.1460–1.15, with support at 1.1280 and 1.1160, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

ECB cut expected, rhetoric in focus

"EUR consolidated as markets re-assess tariff concerns and await ECB meeting (Thursday). On ECB, our house is looking for a 25bp cut. Trade tensions pose growth concerns while the drop in energy prices and much stronger EUR are likely to have added to disinflationary pressures."

"More importantly, ECB’s rhetoric is key – if policymakers will be guiding for further cuts or make mention that the EUR’s recent rally is excessive, etc. Dovish comments may partially negate EUR’s ascend."

"Daily momentum is bullish while RSI rose into near overbought conditions. Consolidation likely. Resistance at 1.1460/70 levels before 1.15. Support at 1.1280, 1.1160 levels."