EUR/PLN: Range trading around 200DMA – Societe Generale

Societe Generale strategists observe that EUR/PLN has recently rebounded after defending an ascending trend line from February 2025 near 4.2100. The pair continues to oscillate around the 200-DMA, lacking clear direction. They expect short-term price action to remain confined between 4.2100 and 4.2600, with a break of either boundary needed to confirm a new trend.

Polish Zloty held in technical range

"In Poland, the forecast of today’s NBP meeting is no change at 3.75%. A hawkish statement or press conference tomorrow by Governor Glapiński could drive EUR/PLN back below 200dma (4.2437). Renewed policy tightening is unlikely based on the assumption that inflation hovers inside the tolerance band over the medium term."

"The upside surprise in April [CPI] was largely fuel and energy led despite price caps and tax cuts. Vigilance over oil prices, second round effects and the possibility of future tightening should keep front end paying interest intact in the short term."

"Having said that, forwards already imply up to four hikes over 12 months to 4.75% and we are of the view that market pricing should gradually subside, boosting the front end."

"EUR/PLN recently defended the ascending trend line drawn from February 2025 near 4.2100, resulting in a rebound. The pair has experienced crisscross moves around the 200-DMA, highlighting a lack of clear direction. "

"Short-term price action could remain contained within a range defined by the limits of 4.2100 and the recent pivot high at 4.2600. A move beyond either of these bands will be crucial in confirming a directional move."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)