EUR/JPY drops to near 186.00 amid fresh intervention warnings from Japan

EUR/JPY retreats to 186.20 from two-week highs above 187.50, turns negative on the day.
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said that "the time for decisive action" is near.
German GDP beat expectations in Q1, but unemployment rose unexpectedly.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The Euro (EUR) has pulled back form two week highs above 187.50 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, retreating to 186.20 at the time of writing, as Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama launched a clear intervention warning.

Katayama affirmed on Thursday that the "timing for decisive action is near" and that Japanese authorities are getting closer to stepping into the FX markets. These comments arrive after the USD/JPY crossed the key 160.00 level, considered a line in the sand for Tokyo.

The JPY was showing the weakest performance among the G8 currencies on Thursday. The latest jump in Oil prices and the prospect of an extended blockade in the Strait of Hormuz have reactivated concerns about the consequences for the Crude-importing Japanese economy, offsetting the hawkish tone of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent monetary policy meeting.

In Europe, German jobless figures in March disappointed. The unemployment rate rose to 6.4%, against the market consensus of a steady 6.3% rate from February. Data from Destatis revealed that the number of jobless workers increased by 20K, exceeding the 4K forecasted by market analysts and keeping the total unemployment figure beyond 3 million.

These figures offset the 0.3% increase of the first quarter's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which beat expectations of a slight slowdown to 0.2%, following another 0.3% quarterly gain in the last three months of last year.

In the Eurozone, inflation figures have confirmed the higher inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict. The Eurozone preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) has risen 1% in April, following a 1.3% increase in March. Moreover, the HICP rose 3% YoY, from 2.6% in March, and exceeded market expectations of 2.9%.

The focus now shifts to the European Central Bank (ECB), which will disclose the outcome of its last monetary policy meeting. The bank is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold, but hint at rate hikes in the near term, pressured by the rising prices.

Economic Indicator

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Economic Indicator

ECB Rate On Deposit Facility

One of the European Central Bank's three key interest rates, the rate on the deposit facility, is the rate at which banks earn interest when they deposit funds with the ECB. It is announced by the European Central Bank at each of its eight scheduled annual meetings.

EUR/USD looks well bid above 1.1600

EUR/USD extends its recovery and climbs back above the 1.1600 mark in quite an auspicious start to the week. Improved risk appetite following the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh on the US Dollar, lending support to the risk complex. Looking ahead, investors are likely to remain on the sidelines ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting.

GBP/USD climbs to multi-day highs around 1.3460

GBP/USD remains comfortably in positive territory north of 1.3400 the figure on Monday. Cable continues to draw support from an improvement in market sentiment after reports that the US and Iran have reached a framework agreement aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold extends the recovery, targets $4,400

Gold rallies on Monday and climbs well above the $4,300 mark per troy ounce. The precious metal benefits from renewed selling pressure on the Greenback as investors reassess the implications of the US-Iran agreement to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants now turn their attention to Wednesday's FOMC gathering.