EUR/JPY approaches 184.00 after bright Eurozone manufacturing data

EUR/JPY extends recovery and nears 184.00 buoyed by upbeat macroeconomic data.
March's Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI shows the strongest reading in nearly 4 years.
Hopes of a swift end to the Iran war are providing some support to the Euro.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The Euro (EUR) accelerated its recovery against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Wednesday, reaching session highs above 183.80, from 182.65 lows on Monday, fuelled by the release of stronger-than-expected Eurozone manufacturing figures and a brighter market mood.

Eurozone’s March HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures have been revised to a 51.6 reading from preliminary estimations of 51.4, and the 50.8 reading posted in February.

Eurozone manufacturing activity hits a 45-month high

March figures reflect upward revisions of manufacturing business activity in Germany and Italy, while France’s sector has been revised down to a standstill, and Spain’s manufacturing activity contracted against expectations.

The final reading, however, shows the sector's strongest performance in the last 45 months. These numbers come after preliminary consumer inflation figures showed on Tuesday that prices grew below expectations during the war in Iran, easing concerns about the immediate consequences of the war, and providing additional support to the Euro, with investors looking at a swift end to the conflict.

US President Trump affirmed on Tuesday that the US Army would exit Iran in the next two or three weeks, whether there is a deal or not. Trump assured that Tehran will be unable to build a nuclear weapon “for years” and that the Strait of Hormuz will open “automatically” after the US exit.

From a wider perspective, the EUR/JPY pair remains below last week’s ranges, following a sharp reversal on Monday, after Japanese authorities flagged the possibility of an immediate intervention to stem Yen weakness as the USD pair crossed the key 160.00 level. Japan’s Top Currency Diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, observed rising speculative activity in currency markets and warned that Tokyo is ready to take “decisive steps” if these trends continue. These comments boosted the Yen across the board and have kept Yen bears in check so far this week.
(This story was corrected on April 1 at 11:05 GMT to say that the Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI has reached a 45-month high and not 44 as previously stated.)

Economic Indicator

HCOB Manufacturing PMI

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.

Economic Indicator

HCOB Manufacturing PMI

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in Germany’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. As Europe’s main manufacturing hub, German PMI data can also be a bellwether of the sector’s health in the broader continent. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.

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