EUR/GBP steadies below 0.8650 with all eyes on UK elections

EUR/GBP has found support at 0.8620 but remains capped below 0.8650.
UK local elections are expected to deliver a significant setback to the Labour Party.
In the Eurozone, German Factory Orders beat expectations in March.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The Euro (EUR) has found some support in the 0.8620 area against the British Pound (GBP), but upside attempts remain capped below a previous support area at 0.8650. Hopes of a peace deal in Iran have lifted market sentiment, but investors, however, await the results of local elections in the UK to make investment decisions on the Pound, and the upbeat German Factory Orders have failed to boost the common currency.

UK voters are heading to the polls for elections to choose 136 local authorities in England, as well as the Scottish and Welsh parliaments, with all signs pointing to a significant setback for the ruling Labour Party. If these forecasts are confirmed, political uncertainty and fresh concerns about the UK’s fiscal stability might add some pressure on the Pound.

On the geopolitical front, Tehran is expected to respond on Thursday to a US peace proposal, which would put an end to the war. The agreement, however, leaves key issues such as the status of the Strait of Hormuz unresolved, and is keeping investors’ enthusiasm limited and Oil prices at levels well above those before the war. This poses additional weight on Euro and Pound bulls.

In the Eurozone, German Factory Orders have posted a positive surprise with a 5% rise in March, beating expectations of a 1% increase and following a 1.4% growth in February. Later on the day, the Eurozone’s March Retail Sales are expected to show the impact of the Iran war on consumer spending, while a slew of European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers will provide further insight into the bank’s tightening calendar.

Economic Indicator

Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)

The Factory orders released by the Deutsche Bundesbank is an indicator that includes shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders. An increase in the factory order total may indicate an expansion in the German economy and could be an inflationary factor. It is worth noting that the German Factory barely influences, either positively or negatively, the total Eurozone GDP. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is negative.

Economic Indicator

Retail Sales (MoM)

The Retail Sales data, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, measures the volume of retail sales in the Eurozone. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term, which accounts for around 5% of the total value added of the Eurozone economies. Retail Sales data is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the prior month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish

AUD/USD flirts with 0.7000, lowest since early August amid bullish USD

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USD/JPY pulls back from three-week high after failing near 159.00

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Gold treads water below $4,300

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Week ahead: Rate hike bets face a crucial data week

Despite the solid drop from the mid-September high, oil prices remained in the driver’s seat for another week, setting the tone in financial markets. Six months have passed since the late-February start of the US-Iran conflict, and there is still no breakthrough in the stalled talks, despite pressure from regional leaders and the rest of the world.

CFTC Report: Defensive currency positioning takes hold

The week in one sentence: Sterling and Euro shorts deepened in the week to September 22, while Yen longs were cut sharply. Oil positioning improved despite a steep price decline, and Gold exposure remained crowded. The main signal was a more defensive currency positioning backdrop.

Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.