EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro wavers around 1.1430 with the bearish trend intact
- EUR/USD edges up to levels near 1.1440 but remains trapped within previous ranges
- Bright German Trade Balance figures have provided minor support to the Euro.
- Recent price action hints at a potential bearish flag formation.
The Euro (EUR) posts moderate gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, hitting session highs near 1.1440, yet trapped within the weekly range, with the broader bearish trend in play. A softer US Dollar is providing some support to the Euro, but rising geopolitical tensions and the rebound in Oil prices keep weighing on the common currency.
Data from Germany released earlier on Thursday revealed that the Trade Balance surplus increased beyond expectations in May, totalling EUR 19.1 billion, from the 14.5 billion surplus seen in April, with exports growing and imports contracting against expectations. The Euro received a minor boost after the data release.
The US Dollar, on the other hand, is losing ground, with markets still hopeful that Washington and Tehran will return to the negotiating table, despite the escalating tensions. News that Qatar is pressing Iran to implement the MoU agreement and contain the escalation feeds hopes of a negotiated end to the war and is keeping the Euro from dropping further.
Technical Analysis: Potential bearish flag formation
EUR/USD trades at 1.1435, holding within an upward channel, yet with momentum indicators reflecting a lack of a clear bias. The four-hour Relative Strength Index (14) keeps wavering around the 50 midline, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flat near zero, altogether hinting at a hesitant market.
Bulls would need to break the top of the last few weeks' trading range, at the 1.1480 area and preferably the channel top, now around 1.1500, to ease bearish pressure and shift the focus towards the mid-June highs near 1.1620.
A break below Wednesday's lows, at the 1.1390 area, would highlight a bearish flag formation that would be confirmed below the June 24 low in the 1.1330 area. The flag's measured target is a few pips below the late May 2025 lows, at 1.1210.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The story was corrected on July 9 at 08:22 GMT to change the title to EUR/USD Price forecast from the previously written EUR/GBP.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.16% | -0.21% | -0.16% | 0.03% | -0.14% | -0.63% | -0.28% | |
| EUR | 0.16% | -0.05% | -0.02% | 0.18% | 0.06% | -0.43% | -0.11% | |
| GBP | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.24% | 0.10% | -0.39% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | 0.16% | 0.02% | -0.02% | 0.18% | 0.06% | -0.46% | -0.11% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.18% | -0.24% | -0.18% | -0.14% | -0.63% | -0.30% | |
| AUD | 0.14% | -0.06% | -0.10% | -0.06% | 0.14% | -0.48% | -0.13% | |
| NZD | 0.63% | 0.43% | 0.39% | 0.46% | 0.63% | 0.48% | 0.34% | |
| CHF | 0.28% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.11% | 0.30% | 0.13% | -0.34% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
