EUR/GBP gains ground to near 0.8650 ahead of BoE's Mann speech

EUR/GBP gathers strength around 0.8645 in Tuesday’s early European session.
An ECB official said there’s no need for more cuts unless new risks appear.
BoE’s Mann speech will be in the spotlight later on Tuesday.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The EUR/GBP cross gains momentum to near 0.8645 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) as the European Central Bank (ECB) signals a pause in monetary easing. The Bank of England (BoE) Catherine Mann is set to speak later on Tuesday.

ECB policymakers said the Eurozone economy can handle a pause in cuts, adding that the central bank sees no reason to lower interest rates again right now, even after inflation in the euro area finally hit the 2% target. The ECB said the current inflation level is “in a good place” and warned against cutting rates for no clear reason.

Additionally, ECB President Christine Lagarde said in July that the central bank was "in a good place" as it left its key rate at 2%, bringing a year-long cutting cycle to an end and leading investors to bet on a prolonged pause. The cautious tone from the ECB might support the shared currency in the near term.

The upbeat UK preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for August and hot UK July inflation data diminish the odds of the Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts this year. This, in turn, might underline the GBP and cap the upside for the cross. The BoE cut the interest rates from 4.25% to 4.0% earlier this month as the UK central bank resumed what it describes as a “gradual and careful” approach to monetary easing. A quarter-point cut is not fully priced in until March 2026.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

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