DAX outlook: Five‑swing Elliott Wave structure from August 28 high projects 24,350 [Video]

The short‑term Elliott Wave view in DAX shows that the decline from the August 28, 2026 high is unfolding as a five‑swing corrective sequence. A five‑swing sequence is a motive structure that favors continuation lower. The decline is proposed to be taking the form of a double three Elliott Wave structure.

From the August 28 high, wave (a) ended at 25,727.93. A rally in wave (b) terminated at 26,167.93. The subsequent move lower in wave (c) ended at 25,172.89, completing wave ((w)). A corrective rally in wave ((x)) then finished at 25,798.75. Afterward, the Index resumed its decline in wave ((y)), breaking below the prior wave ((w)) low. This resumption confirms the bearish sequence and strengthens the case for further downside.

The target for wave ((y)) can be projected using the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((w)). This calculation yields a target zone between 23,460 and 24,350. In the short term, the Index is expected to complete a diagonal wave (a). It should then rally in wave (b) to retrace the cycle from the September 17, 2026 high. That rally is likely to unfold in either three or seven swings before the decline resumes in wave (c).

Near term, as long as the pivot at 25,798.75 remains intact, the Elliott Wave structure favors continuation lower toward the 24,350 area. This level represents a key inflection zone where the correction may stabilize before reassessing the broader cycle.

DAX 60-minute Elliott Wave chart

DAX Elliott Wave [Video]