Copper: Tariff delay tempers upside – TD Securities

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that Copper remains under pressure as the missed June 30 Section 232 tariff update removes a near-term supply risk and weakens short-term momentum. CTAs have already cut around 13% of historic net length, while ongoing tariff and inventory fragmentation risks support Copper but a softer demand backdrop limits upside.

Tariff delay shifts CTA positioning

"Copper and aluminum are in the crosshairs for CTAs today. Lack of an update on copper tariffs has removed a near-term supply risk, opening the red metal up to further selling, while a continuation of the Hormuz trade unwind weighs heavy on aluminum."

"The June 30th deadline for recommendations on refined copper tariffs under Section 232 came and went without any official update from President Trump."

"For flat prices however, short-term momentum is weaker again with the immediate supply risk event in the rearview mirror, prompting CTAs to once again liquidate some 13% of their historic net length."

"Looking forward, the continued risk of tariffs and inventory fragmentation will support the red metal, but a weakening short-term demand backdrop is likely to also cap any material upside."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD hits multi-week tops around 1.3560

GBP/USD gathers fresh steam and advances to new three-month peaks near the 1.3560 zone on Friday. Cable’s sharp move higher comes after three daily drops in a row and follows the increasing selling pressure hurting the Greenback.

EUR/USD pops to fresh two-month highs, targets 1.1600

EUR/USD advances markedly, revisiting the upper 1.1500s for the first time since mid-June. The pair’s sharp uptick comes on the back of a strong retracement in the US Dollar amid BoJ intervention chatter and despite steady uncertainty in the Middle East.

Gold picks up pace, approaches $4,400

Gold rebounds toward the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Friday, reversing the previous day’s pullback. The precious metal’s recovery comes as fresh and intense weakness keep weighing on the US Dollar, while traders keep assessing easing expectations of an imminent Fed interest rate hike and the situation from the Middle East.

Pi Network Price Forecast: PI extends consolidation as bulls eye $0.10

Pi Network (PI) price holds steady on Friday, maintaining a consolidating tone for three consecutive days. Mild retail strength in the PI token remains stable, with Open Interest above $9 million, while social buzz eases. PI token’s technical outlook is mixed, as bearish momentum wanes to neutral, with bulls eyeing the $0.1000 psychological level.

Weekly focus: Some relief in US inflation concerns

Actual inflation data for July came out as expected with a 0.1% m/m increase in headline CPI and 0.2% excluding food and energy. Annual headline inflation remains too high at 3.4% and means that wage earners are experiencing stagnating spending power at best, and core inflation is a bit higher than the inflation target of two percent would suggest.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.