Colombia: Oil‑supported recovery with tighter BanRep – Societe Generale

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

According to Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish, higher Oil prices improve Colombia’s outlook, with growth expected to move back toward potential in 2026–27. Inflation expectations are stabilizing, though Oil passthrough could generate temporary upside. The central bank of Colombia BanRep (Banco de la República) is projected to tighten further, with rates likely peaking near 12%, while a close election shapes fiscal and market expectations and adds risk to inflation and policy rates.

Oil‑driven growth and higher rate peak

"Higher oil prices lift the outlook, with growth moving back toward potential in 2026–27."

"[Inflation] Expectations stabilizing, though oil passthrough could create temporary upside."

"BanRep to tighten further, with rates likely peaking near 12%."

"Close election reshapes expectations, with outcomes influencing fiscal and market views."

"Oil passthrough and election uncertainty could push inflation and policy rates higher."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD keeps range near mid-0.7100s as USD bulls await US CPI

AUD/USD steadies near mid-0.7100s in the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's sharp decline to an over one-week low. The August PPI report reaffirmed Fed rate-hike bets and boosted the US Dollar on Thursday, which weighed heavily on the pair. However, hawkish RBA expectations limited losses for the Aussie as USD bulls now await the release of the US consumer inflation figures before placing fresh bets.

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00; looks to US CPI

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00 in the Asian session on Friday after hot Japanese PPI data bolster a more hawkish BoJ repricing and provide fresh impetus to the Japanese Yen. However, the downside appears capped as the US Dollar preserves overnight gains ahead of the latest US consumer inflation data.

Gold moves away from one-week low, climbs above $4,450 as USD edges lower ahead of CPI

Gold builds on its modest intraday recovery from the $4,300 neighborhood, or a one-and-a-half-week low, touched earlier this Friday, and climbs above $4,350 heading into the European session. The upside potential, however, seems limited as traders opt to wait for the release of US consumer inflation figures before placing directional bets.

Cardano approaches critical support as correction risks grow

Cardano (ADA) recovers slightly, trading at $0.206 at the time of writing on Friday, inches above the critical support zone after losing more than 6% so far this week. Weakening derivatives data and fading bullish momentum suggest a bearish near-term outlook, with a decisive close below the support zone potentially triggering a deeper correction for ADA.

Oil and rates surging ahead of US CPI today

In commodities, brent jumped to USD 108/bbl last night and held that level overnight. This is adding renewed inflation pressure and feeding through into global rates markets. Markets are starting to realise that the Strait of Hormuz disruptions are not going away anytime soon, especially from recent comments that signal no clear resolution in sight.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.