CNY: Supported by exports and geopolitics – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Commerzbank’s FX team highlights that CNY is the only Asian currency stronger against the Dollar since late February, helped by robust exports and policy support. They see China tactically tolerating a firmer CNY ahead of the Trump–Xi summit and using it to bolster its image as a stabilizing force while steadily increasing CNY’s role in global trade settlement.

China currency gains on policy support

"All Asian currencies have depreciated against the USD since the end of February except for CNY. They are down on average by 2.2% vs USD while CNY is up 0.5%. Year-to-date (YTD), Asian currencies are down by around 1.1% and the top three performers are MYR (+2.6%), CNY (+2.3%), and SGD (+0.8%)."

"CNY is up 2.3% YTD. Structural headwinds such as overcapacity, ongoing property downturn, and fragile domestic sentiment persist. However, surprisingly robust export performance has provided a fundamental cushion for the CNY. Additionally, other factors are also supporting the currency, including:"

"Geopolitical Signaling: Strength may be a tactical move ahead of the Trump-Xi Summit, which is re-scheduled for 14-15 May. China appears to be tolerating a stronger CNY to distract attention from the large current account surplus, evidenced by the PBoC's consistently stronger mid-point fixing for CNY in the first 11 weeks of this year. Furthermore, China is attempting to position itself as a stable force amid the ongoing Middle East conflict."

"Increased Settlement Share: Confidence is growing as more trade is settled in CNY. The latest global payment data from SWIFT noted that yuan’s share in global payments rose to 3.1% in March 2026 vs 2.7% at the end of 2025. While still trailing the USD (51.1%) and EUR (21.3%), SWIFT only captures part of the picture."

"According to the PBoC, about one-third of China’s global merchandise trade goods was settled in CNY in 2025, up from 20% in 2022. Notably, nearly all of China-Russia trade is settled in CNY, and (contributed about 3-5pp to the trade settled in CNY). CNY's share of China's total cross-border settlements (covering trade, services and financial transactions) reached around 53% in March 2026;"

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD embarks on a consolidative move around 1.1600

EUR/USD rapidly leaves behind Friday’s small downtick and trades with solid gains on Monday, consolidating its daily advance around the 1.1600 region as the NA session draws to a close. Meanwhile, the improved risk appetite following the US-Iran deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh on the US Dollar, lending support to the broader risk-linked galaxy.

GBP/USD retreats from tops, back to 1.3420

GBP/USD keeps its advance past the 1.3400 yardstick at the beginning of the week. In the meantime, Cable continues to draw support from improved market sentiment following reports that the US and Iran have reached a framework agreement aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold stays firm, still below $4,400

Gold builds on its recent gains on Monday, climbing well north of the $4,300 mark per troy ounce. The yellow metal benefits from renewed selling pressure on the Greenback as investors reassess the implications of the US-Iran agreement to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants now turn their attention to Wednesday's FOMC gathering.

Ethereum Price Forecast: BitMine continues accumulation as ETH climbs above $1,800

Ethereum (ETH) treasury firm BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) expanded its holdings last week, purchasing 76,881 ETH amid weakness in the crypto market. The acquisition lifted BitMine's stash of the top altcoin to 5.62 million ETH worth $10.35 billion at the time of writing. The company claims it now holds 4.66% of ETH's circulating supply, bringing it closer to its alchemy of 5% goal.

Indonesia may have stabilised the Rupiah, but the bigger fight is not over

Bank Indonesia’s emergency rate hike has bought the Rupiah some time, but the currency’s hesitant response suggests it has not yet restored confidence. Can higher interest rates solve the Rupiah’s problem, or do the country’s challenges run deeper?

4.2% headline, 0.2% core: Why the Fed's next hike may be targeting the wrong problem

May's CPI put headline inflation at 4.2% on the year, up from 3.8% in April and the hottest reading since April 2023, while core prices rose just 0.2% on the month, undershooting the 0.3% consensus and halving April's pace.