CEE FX: Hungary favoured, Romania and Czech on hold – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects March inflation in Romania to stay above 10% in coming months, peaking near 11%, keeping the National Bank of Romania on hold with no rate cuts in 2026. In Czech Republic, he sees CNB unchanged despite firmer inflation and limited scope for EUR/CZK to revisit 24.250. ING remains broadly bullish on Hungary, looking for EUR/HUF to stabilise in the 355–360 range.

Romania, Czech policy steady as Hungary preferred

"Today, we will see more inflation figures for March in the CEE region. In Romania, the morning figures showed an increase from 9.3% to 9.9% YoY, above market expectations."

"We expect inflation to exceed/continue above 10% in the coming months, with a peak in April around 11%. This should keep the National Bank of Romania on hold for a longer period and we do not expect rate cuts this year."

"In the Czech Republic, the final estimate of March inflation will be published, where the flash showed an increase from 1.4% to 1.9%, below market expectations."

"The question is where core inflation moved from February's 2.7%, but for now, like other central banks in the region, we see the CNB unchanged this year."

"EUR/CZK is gradually grinding down and with levels below 24.350 it is not far from 24.250, ahead of US-Iran levels. Given the geopolitical uncertainty and the two CNB rate hikes priced in, we do not see the conditions for a return to these levels at this time."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD: Downward-sloping trendline near 1.3470 remains key barrier

The British pound faces selling pressure against its major currency peers, trading 0.1% lower at around 1.3420 against the US Dollar during the European trading session on Tuesday.

EUR/USD flatlines above 1.1500, awaits US jobs data

EUR/USD holds steady around 1.1505 in European trading hours on Tuesday. Markets remain cautious ahead of a slew of US jobs data, starting with the JOLTS Job Openings Survey later today. However, the downside appears capped by hot Eurozone inflation in July, bolstering the case for a European Central Bank rate hike at the next meeting.

Gold holds steady above $4,050; hawkish Fed bets favor bearish traders

Gold remains confined in a range below the $4,100 mark through the early European session as traders opt to wait for further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. Meanwhile, the uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks continues to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar.

Aave: Bearish RSI divergence risks a 20% drop despite steady DeFi deposits

Aave (AAVE) extends a mild near-term recovery on Tuesday, holding above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $90.80. Aave protocol’s V3 deployment on Monad blockchain recorded over $500 million in deposits over the last month, reflecting increased user adoption.

US JOLTs report in focus

In the US, the June JOLTs report will be in the spotlight. Job openings have increased modestly this year, which has historically predicted rising wage cost pressures ahead. June trade balance data will also be released in the afternoon and the preliminary reading pointed towards a stable trade deficit from May. The Fed's Schmid (non-voter, hawk) will be on the wires overnight.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.