Canadian Dollar: Trade war clouds Q2 GDP rebound – BBH

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes USD/CAD is trading just above its 200‑day moving average near 1.3840 as Canada’s Q2 GDP is expected to rebound strongly, with real GDP seen rising 3.4% SAAR versus a slight Q1 contraction. However, Haddad warns a worsening US–Canada trade war could cut the rebound short and sees current Bank of Canada hike pricing as too aggressive.

Loonie faces growth and policy crosswinds

"USD/CAD is trading just above support at its 200-day moving average (1.3840). Canada’s economy is expected to recover in Q2 boosted by domestic demand and exports (1:30pm London, 8:30am New York)."

"Real GDP is seen rising 3.4% SAAR vs. -0.1% in Q1, which would be stronger than the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) 2.5% projection. Statistics Canada’s advanced July GDP estimate will also offer an early read on Q3."

"However, the worsening US-Canada trade war threatens to cut the rebound short."

"Encouragingly, core inflation near 2% gives the BOC room to stay on hold and cushion the economy."

"As such, market pricing 75bps of BOC hikes in the next twelve months look too aggressive, leaving scope for a dovish repricing and USD/CAD firmer near 1.4000."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD remains capped at 1.3600, awaits key US event risks

GBP/USD is consolidating in Friday's European trading after facing rejection at 1.3600 earlier on. Traders remain on the sidelines and refrain from placing fresh bets on the major ahead of the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls benchmark revision and Fed Chair Warsh's debut at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Both events could ramp up market volatility.

EUR/USD hovers around 1.1650 ahead of NFP revision, Warsh

EUR/USD is treading water at around 1.1650 in the European session on Friday. The pair faces headwinds as the US Dollar clings to its recent recovery ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls benchmark revision and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. However, the downside appears cushioned by hawkish ECB expectations.

Gold holds gains above $4,600 as bullish bias prevails

Gold extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $4,610 during the European hours. The price of the precious metal is remaining within the ascending channel pattern, suggesting a persistent bullish bias. The XAU/USD pair is retaining a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above both the nine-period and 50-period EMAs, keeping the short- and medium-term trends aligned to the upside.

Hyperliquid rally stretches thin amid treasury growth, CFTC innovation push

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is down 2% on Friday after reaching a record high of 86.75 the previous day. Nasdaq-listed Hyperliquid Strategies Inc raised almost $650 million in an equity deal to increase its HYPE holding to 29.3 million tokens. Hyperliquid is also pushing to expand its perpetual futures markets in the US.

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole dilemma: Say too much, too little, or just enough

Kevin Warsh is preparing to deliver his first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve Chair on Friday, and expectations extend well beyond whether interest rates will be raised or left unchanged in September. The Jackson Hole symposium, held from August 27 to 29, has the official theme “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole dilemma: Say too much, too little, or just enough

Kevin Warsh is preparing to deliver his first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair on Friday, and expectations extend well beyond whether interest rates will be raised or left unchanged in September.