|

Canadian Dollar edges lower as safe-haven demand, policy divergence underpin US Dollar

  • USD/CAD trades around 1.3975 on Thursday, up 0.23% on the day as demand for the US Dollar strengthens.
  • Concerns over a potential collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire continue to drive safe-haven flows.
  • The Bank of Canada maintains a cautious tone as markets monitor inflation risks and geopolitical tensions.

USD/CAD advances toward 1.3975 on Thursday at the time of writing, up 0.23% on the day, with the US Dollar (USD) benefiting from renewed safe-haven demand amid persistent tensions in the Middle East.

Market sentiment remains fragile as investors question the durability of the ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran. The exchange of attacks between the two countries in recent days has fueled fears of a renewed regional escalation. According to the Wall Street Journal, US President Donald Trump stated that recent US military operations were a response to Tehran’s downing of a US Apache helicopter rather than the start of a broader conflict. Meanwhile, CNN reported that diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran remain on track, although this has not been enough to fully restore risk appetite.

This cautious environment is supporting the US Dollar, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounding toward 100.05 at the time of press. More growth-sensitive currencies, including the Canadian Dollar (CAD), are struggling to benefit from an environment dominated by geopolitical uncertainty.

The Greenback is also supported by expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Data released on Wednesday showed that Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation accelerated to 4.2% YoY in May, its fastest pace in more than three years and more than double the Fed’s 2% target. The report reinforced expectations that the central bank could raise interest rates later this year, pushing US Treasury yields higher.

In Canada, the Bank of Canada (BoC) left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% at its June meeting. Governor Tiff Macklem noted that persistently elevated energy prices could require additional policy tightening, while also acknowledging that further US trade restrictions could weigh on growth and justify additional easing. Deutsche Bank noted that the central bank is keeping its options open amid heightened uncertainty, while Rabobank argued that a technical recession and weak investment activity limit the scope for rate hikes.

This divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed), which remains focused on elevated inflation, and the Bank of Canada (BoC), which is increasingly concerned about economic growth, continues to provide fundamental support for USD/CAD. Investors now await upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) data and any new developments regarding Iran to assess the pair’s near-term direction.

Canadian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.01%0.04%-0.03%0.23%0.15%0.23%-0.07%
EUR0.00%0.05%0.00%0.24%0.05%0.26%-0.06%
GBP-0.04%-0.05%-0.04%0.18%0.00%0.21%-0.11%
JPY0.03%0.00%0.04%0.25%0.06%0.25%-0.04%
CAD-0.23%-0.24%-0.18%-0.25%-0.18%0.03%-0.30%
AUD-0.15%-0.05%0.00%-0.06%0.18%0.21%-0.14%
NZD-0.23%-0.26%-0.21%-0.25%-0.03%-0.21%-0.32%
CHF0.07%0.06%0.11%0.04%0.30%0.14%0.32%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Ghiles Guezout

Ghiles Guezout is a Market Analyst with a strong background in stock market investments, trading, and cryptocurrencies. He combines fundamental and technical analysis skills to identify market opportunities.

More from Ghiles Guezout
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD extends the range play above 0.7200 as traders await US inflation data

AUD/USD is seen extending its consolidative price move above 0.7200 during the Asian session on Thursday amid mixed cues. Rising RBA rate-hike bets keep the Aussie close to its highest level since May 14. However, hawkish Fed expectations and escalating US-Iran tensions offer some support to the US Dollar, capping the currency pair as traders await US inflation figures.


USD/JPY consolidates around 153.50 as bears turn cautious ahead of US inflation

USD/JPY stabilizes above 153.50 during the Asian session on Thursday, but remains near a seven-month low set earlier this week as hawkish BoJ repricing continues to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, rising September Fed rate-hike bets and escalating US-Iran tensions help ease US Dollar selling pressure, offering some support to the currency pair ahead of US inflation figures.

Gold remains stuck between two key averages ahead of the US inflation test

Gold is building on the previous recovery from one-week lows near $4,350 early Thursday, stretching beyond $4,400. Gold buyers now look forward to the US Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index data due Thursday and Friday, respectively, for a sustained turnaround.

XRP rally cools, XLM heads toward a make-or-break support
Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) trade under pressure on Thursday after losing over 2% and 3% so far this week. XRP and XLM are both nearing their crucial support zones, which could determine the next directional move. Meanwhile, mixed derivatives and on-chain data suggest upside potential remains limited for both altcoins. CryptoQuant’s summary data shows cautious signs for both altcoins.
Jobs opened the door for the Fed — inflation decides whether it walks through

The latest US jobs report did not end the debate over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move. It may have done something more subtle: it gave policymakers permission to keep their options open. After months of softer labour market signals, August delivered a stronger-than-expected rebound.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight
The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.