CAD: Retail data eyed for consumption rebound – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts expect Canadian Retail Sales to rise 0.7% month-on-month in February versus the market’s 0.9% consensus. They see stronger auto sales and higher gasoline prices underpinning the headline and ex-autos measures. Despite weaker hours worked in trade services, they judge household goods consumption to be on track for a sharp rebound in Q1.

Canada Retail Sales support Canadian Dollar

"We look for retail sales to rise by 0.7% m/m in February (mkt 0.9%) to build on their solid performance last month, with stronger auto sales helping to underpin the headline print."

"New vehicle sales remain well below Q3 levels but have made back some of that weakness over Jan/Feb, while higher gasoline prices should provide the key driver behind a 0.4% m/m increase in the ex-autos measure (mkt 0.8%)."

"Trade services were not the only weak spot in the February jobs report, but hours worked across the industry still fell by 1.5% m/m."

"The contribution from higher gasoline prices should contribute to a more modest increase on a volumes basis, which would still leave household goods consumption on track for a sharp rebound in Q1."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)